电解水制氢是未来最有发展潜力的绿色氢能供应方式，因此在“双碳”背景下，电解水制氢项目成为市场关注的热点话题。
“到今年春节后，公司用于电解水制氢项目的30台设备已经全部投产。”2月28日，宝丰能源（600989.SH）证券部一位工作人员告诉21世纪经济报道记者，公司的电解水制氢设备是外购的，生产的氢气除用于烯烃生产外，也可供应外部加氢站，用于新能源汽车加氢使用。
实际上，宝丰能源是国内较早开始建设太阳能电解水制氢项目的企业，其于2019年开始建设的项目，是已知全球单厂规模最大、单台产能最大的电解水制氢项目，2021年4月首批装置成功投产。
不仅是宝丰能源，A股中还有部分上市公司也在布局电解水制氢项目，例如“硅片龙头”隆基股份（601012.SH）、阳光电源（300274.SZ）、先导智能（300450.SZ）等。
在采访中，21世纪经济报道记者了解到，尽管电解水制氢设备的规模在未来能够达到7000亿市场规模，但电解槽的部分关键材料与技术依旧依赖进口，且制氢成本还居高不下，需要一定的时间来换成长空间。
电解水制氢前景广阔
目前，氢气的制取主要有三种主流的技术路线：以煤炭、石油、天然气为代表的化石能源重整制氢（灰氢），以焦炉煤气、 氯碱尾气、丙烷脱氢为代表的工业副产物提纯制氢（蓝氢）；以电解水制氢为代表的可再生能源制氢（绿氢）。
电解水制氢技术主要有三种：碱性水电解（AE）、质子交换膜水电解（PEM）和固体氧化物水电解（SOE），但是SOE电解水技术仍处于实验室研发阶段。
在碱性电解水技术和设备制造方面，我国技术水平与国外相近，并拥有完全自主知识产权的设备制造、工艺集成能力。在PEM制氢技术方面，国内尚处于研发走向工业化的前期阶段。
“目前我国的电解水制氢不到氢产能的2%，未来的可提升空间很大。”某券商电新行业分析师告诉21世纪经济报道记者，因为电解水制氢纯度等级高，杂质气体少，易与可再生能源结合，所以被认为是未来最有发展潜力的绿色氢能供应方式。“根据相关预测，到2030年，电解水制氢的占比会提升到10%。”
根据《中国氢能源及燃料电池产业白皮书（2020）》预测，2030年中国氢气需求量达3715万吨，2050年达9690万吨。有分析认为，电解水制氢将逐步作为中国氢能供应的主体，在氢能供给结构的占比将在2040、2050年分别达到45%、70%。
上市公司纷纷布局
从产业链分布看，制氢、燃料电池、储氢等氢能装备齐头并进，是产业投资最活跃领域，投资占比超过 80%。其中，制氢环节在项目数量、投资规模上均占比最高，也是上市公司参与较多的环节。
“公司目前主要是煤制氢装备，电解水制氢设备还在研究中。”兰石重装（603169.SH）一位人士向21世纪经济报道记者表示，“十四五”期间，在氢能领域公司将围绕电解水制氢关键技术与装备研发、分布式氢储能技术及应用等展开技术研究。
隆基股份在去年5月与无锡高新区签署合作协议，在无锡建设电解水制氢设备基地，预计到2022年底将达到年产1.5GW氢能装备的能力。
“我们现在逐步在去开展业务，包括跟一些下游的客户去谈相关的订单。”隆基股份证券部一位人士表示，电解水制氢项目还没有那么快形成销售，“但电解水制氢项目的技术都是我们自主研发的。”
“光伏逆变器龙头”之一的阳光电源（3300274.SZ）也在之前布局了电解水制氢项目，21世纪经济报道记者了解到，该公司旗下的阳光氢能已建有国内首个光伏离网制氢及氢储能发电实证平台、国内最大的5MW电解水制氢系统测试平台、PEM电解制氢技术联合实验室，已具备大批量生产和交付的能力。
一度被市场誉为“氢能概念股龙头”的美锦能源（000723.SZ）目前的制氢方式是焦炉煤气变压吸附（PSA）制氢，但该公司相关人士告诉21世纪经济报道记者，公司有计划未来利用太阳能和风能发电通过电解水制氢。
不过，美锦能源的电解水制氢的膜电极项目“正在顺利推进中”。
电解设备或达7000亿规模
不可否认的是，电解水制氢项目的大力推广，必然将带动对于电解设备的需求。其中，电解槽是电解反应发生的主要场所，也是电解水制氢系统的核心部件。
“公司的电解水制氢项目的设备均为外购。”上述宝丰能源证券部人士表示，公司引进了单套产能1000标方/小时的电解槽以及气化分离器、氢气纯化等装置系统，主要来自中船重工718所和考克利尔竞立（苏州）氢能科技有限公司。
资料显示，从成本构成来看，电解槽在制氢系统总成本中的占比约 45%。在电解槽核心装备中，质子交换膜、双极板、氢气阀门均为核心部件。
例如，隆基股份的氢能业务主要就是“提供绿氢装备与方案，目前并不直接运营绿电电解水制氢项目。”
业绩预增2倍左右的华电重工（601226.SH）在去年曾开发了新型碱性电解水装置，并依托项目进行首台套示范，因此备受市场的关注。
对于碱性电解水装置的进展情况，华电重工证券部一位人士不愿正面回答，她表示在即将披露的2021年年报中会有信息的更新，“目前我们这边还不能透露具体的情况。”
招商证券认为，电解设备将是千亿级的市场。至2050年，中国电解槽系统的装机量达到500GW，预期市场规模将会突破7000亿。
“预期很美好，但那是近30年后的事情，短期内电解水制氢最大的问题就是要降成本。”上述某券商电新行业分析师直言，电解水制氢的最大成本就是设备成本与电力成本，“这两个成本短期内都看不到大幅下降的可能性，需要时间去换成长空间。”
招商证券预计，5-10年内，电解水制氢成本将降至20元/kg以内，驱动力来自两块，“光伏、风电等可再生能源发电成本的大幅下降”和“电解槽设备成本随着技术进步和规模化将在2030年前下降60%-80% ，电解水制氢系统的耗电量和运维成本降低。”
业内人士指出，目前来看，碱性电解槽的成本较低，经济性较好，市场份额较PEM电解槽高一些。随着燃料电池技术的不断成熟，PEM电解槽的成本和市场份额将逐渐提高，与碱性电解槽接近持平，并根据各自与可再生能源电力系统的适配性应用在光伏、风电领域。
(This website comes from external information)
Hydrogen production from water electrolysis is the most promising green hydrogen supply method in the future. Therefore, in the context of dual carbon, the hydrogen production from water electrolysis project has become a hot topic in the market.
By the Spring Festival this year, all 30 equipments used by the company for the hydrogen production project from electrolysis of water have been put into production. On February 28, a staff member of the securities department of Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the company The electrolyzed water hydrogen production equipment is purchased from outside. In addition to olefin production, the produced hydrogen can also be supplied to external hydrogenation stations for hydrogenation of new energy vehicles.
In fact, Baofeng Energy is an enterprise that started to build a solar water electrolysis hydrogen production project earlier in China. The project it started construction in 2019 is known to be the worlds largest single plant and the largest single production capacity of the water electrolysis hydrogen production project. In April 2021, the first batch of devices was successfully put into production.
Not only Baofeng Energy, but also some A-share listed companies are also deploying water electrolysis hydrogen production projects, such as silicon chip leader LONGi (601012.SH), Sungrow (300274.SZ), Pioneer Intelligence (300450. SZ) etc.
In the interview, the 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that although the scale of electrolyzed water hydrogen production equipment can reach a market size of 700 billion in the future, some key materials and technologies of electrolyzers still rely on imports, and the cost of hydrogen production remains high. , it takes a certain amount of time to exchange for growth space.
The prospect of electrolysis of water for hydrogen production is broad
At present, there are three main technical routes for hydrogen production: fossil energy reforming hydrogen production (grey hydrogen) represented by coal, oil and natural gas; Product purification to produce hydrogen (blue hydrogen); hydrogen production from renewable energy represented by electrolysis of water (green hydrogen).
There are three main technologies for hydrogen production by electrolysis of water: alkaline water electrolysis (AE), proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (PEM) and solid oxide water electrolysis (SOE), but SOE water electrolysis technology is still in the laboratory research and development stage.
In terms of alkaline electrolyzed water technology and equipment manufacturing, my countrys technical level is similar to that of foreign countries, and it has equipment manufacturing and process integration capabilities with completely independent intellectual property rights. In terms of PEM hydrogen production technology, China is still in the early stage of R&D and industrialization.
Currently, my countrys hydrogen production from electrolyzed water is less than 2% of the hydrogen production capacity, and there is a lot of room for improvement in the future. An analyst from a securities firms e-news industry told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that because of the high purity level of hydrogen production from electrolyzed water, impurity gas It is easy to combine with renewable energy, so it is considered to be the green hydrogen energy supply method with the most development potential in the future. According to relevant forecasts, by 2030, the proportion of hydrogen production by electrolysis of water will increase to 10%.
According to the White Paper on Chinas Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry (2020), Chinas hydrogen demand will reach 37.15 million tons in 2030 and 96.9 million tons in 2050. Some analysts believe that hydrogen production from water electrolysis will gradually become the main body of Chinas hydrogen energy supply, and its proportion in the hydrogen energy supply structure will reach 45% and 70% in 2040 and 2050, respectively.
Listed companies have laid out
From the perspective of industrial chain distribution, hydrogen production, fuel cells, hydrogen storage and other hydrogen energy equipment go hand in hand, and are the most active areas of industrial investment, accounting for more than 80% of the investment. Among them, the hydrogen production link accounts for the highest proportion in terms of the number of projects and investment scale, and it is also a link where listed companies participate more.
The company is currently mainly engaged in coal-to-hydrogen equipment, and electrolyzed water-to-hydrogen equipment is still under study. A person from Lanshi Heavy Equipment (603169.SH) told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, hydrogen In the energy field, the company will carry out technical research on key technologies and equipment research and development of hydrogen production by electrolysis of water, distributed hydrogen energy storage technology and applications.
LONGi Co., Ltd. signed a cooperation agreement with Wuxi High-tech Zone in May last year to build an electrolyzed water hydrogen production equipment base in Wuxi. It is expected that by the end of 2022, it will reach an annual production capacity of 1.5GW of hydrogen energy equipment.
We are now gradually conducting business, including negotiating related orders with some downstream customers. A person from the securities department of LONGi said that the electrolysis water hydrogen production project has not formed sales so quickly, but the electrolysis water hydrogen production project The technology is all developed by us.”
Sunshine Power (3300274.SZ), one of the leaders of photovoltaic inverters, has also deployed an electrolysis water hydrogen production project before. The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that the companys Sunshine Hydrogen Energy has built the first photovoltaic system in China. The off-grid hydrogen production and hydrogen energy storage power generation demonstration platform, the largest domestic 5MW water electrolysis hydrogen production system test platform, and the PEM electrolysis hydrogen production technology joint laboratory have the capacity for mass production and delivery.
Meijin Energy (000723.SZ), which was once hailed as the leader of hydrogen energy concept stocks by the market, is currently producing hydrogen by coke oven gas pressure swing adsorption (PSA). , the company has plans to use solar and wind power to produce hydrogen through electrolysis of water in the future.
However, Meijin Energys membrane electrode project for hydrogen production by electrolysis of water is progressing smoothly.
Electrolysis equipment may reach 700 billion scale
It is undeniable that the vigorous promotion of the water electrolysis hydrogen production project will inevitably drive the demand for electrolysis equipment. Among them, the electrolyzer is the main place where the electrolysis reaction occurs, and it is also the core component of the electrolysis water hydrogen production system.
The equipment of the companys electrolyzed water hydrogen production project is all outsourced. The above-mentioned person from Baofeng Energy Securities said that the company has introduced a single set of electrolyzers with a capacity of 1,000 standard cubic meters per hour, as well as gasification separators, hydrogen purification and other device systems. , mainly from CSIC 718 and Cockrell Jingli (Suzhou) Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd.
According to the data, from the perspective of cost structure, the electrolyzer accounts for about 45% of the total cost of the hydrogen production system. In the core equipment of the electrolyzer, the proton exchange membrane, the bipolar plate and the hydrogen valve are all core components.
For example, LONGis hydrogen energy business is mainly to provide green hydrogen equipment and solutions, and currently does not directly operate the green power electrolysis water hydrogen production project.
Huadian Heavy Industry (601226.SH), whose performance is expected to increase by about 2 times, developed a new type of alkaline water electrolysis device last year and carried out the first demonstration based on the project, so it has attracted the attention of the market.
Regarding the progress of the alkaline electrolyzed water plant, a person from Huadian Heavy Industry Securities Department was reluctant to answer directly, she said that there will be an update of the information in the upcoming 2021 annual report, At present, we cannot disclose the specific situation here.
China Merchants Securities believes that electrolysis equipment will be a market worth 100 billion yuan. By 2050, the installed capacity of electrolyzer systems in China will reach 500GW, and the market size is expected to exceed 700 billion.
The expectations are good, but that is nearly 30 years later. The biggest problem in the short-term production of hydrogen by electrolysis of water is to reduce costs. The above-mentioned analyst in the e-news industry of a securities firm bluntly stated that the biggest cost of hydrogen production from water electrolysis is the cost of equipment. As for the cost of electricity, there is no possibility of a significant drop in these two costs in the short term, and it will take time to exchange for growth space.
China Merchants Securities predicts that in 5-10 years, the cost of hydrogen production by electrolysis of water will be reduced to less than 20 yuan/kg, and the driving force will come from two pieces, the substantial decrease in the cost of renewable energy power generation such as photovoltaics and wind power and the cost of electrolyzer equipment increases with the With technological progress and scale, it will drop by 60%-80% by 2030, and the power consumption and operation and maintenance costs of the electrolyzed water hydrogen production system will be reduced.
Industry insiders pointed out that at present, the cost of alkaline electrolyzers is lower, the economy is better, and the market share is higher than that of PEM electrolyzers. With the continuous maturity of fuel cell technology, the cost and market share of PEM electrolyzers will gradually increase, close to the level of alkaline electrolyzers, and will be applied in photovoltaic and wind power fields according to their suitability with renewable energy power systems.