2022年某些锂电材料紧缺和涨价的行情或仍将持续。隔膜作为锂电池中具有超高附加值的材料，毛利率最高可达到70%以上。而如此暴利的材料，还一直处于涨价的上升通道。
“2021年以来，各隔膜厂已先后向部分中小客户涨价，我们预计2022年国内隔膜涨价潮将进一步蔓延，2024年前价格仍将维持高位。”中信建投在其研报中指出。
隔膜价格走高源于供给不平衡。行业数据显示，2021年全球锂电隔膜产量105.5亿平米;预计2022年全球锂电隔膜需求将超135亿平米，需求增量相较2021年将超过30亿平米。然而业内预计，2022年全球的新增实际有效产出不到20亿平米，供应缺口巨大。
在此背景下，不少下游厂商都在大力囤货。今年年初，恩捷股份控股子公司上海恩捷与中创新航签订协议，上海恩捷承诺2022年将向中创新航供应金额不超过25亿元的隔膜。浙商证券分析称，该订单对应隔膜采购量约8.9亿平米，对应锂电池产量超过50GWh。
除此之外，海外某大型车企与上海恩捷签订隔膜协议，2022-2024年恩捷将向海外某大型车企保证供应数量不超过16.5亿平米隔膜，2025年起保证供应数量不超过9亿平米/年隔膜。宁德时代向上海恩捷大采购，2022年度上海恩捷向宁德时代供应湿法隔膜，不含税总订单金额约51.78亿元，粗略估算隔膜采购量约为18.4亿平米。
业内分析指出，隔膜环节是锂电池四大材料中竞争格局最优的赛道。根据中信证券预测，到2027年全球新能源汽车动力电池需求有望达到1720GWh，2020-2027年CAGR将达到44%;到2027年储能电池装机量将达到212GWh，2019年-2027年CAGR 将达到35%。假设按照1GWh锂电池对应隔膜需求1500万平方米估算，2027年，全球将有约290亿平方米动力锂电隔膜需求。
从市场供应来看，中国企业占据全球70%的市场份额。根据川财证券研报数据，在湿法隔膜市场上，恩捷股份在国内市占率高达50.3%，中材科技和星源材质位列二、三位。干法隔膜市场，深圳中兴新材、星源材质和惠强新材位列前三名。
为满足不断增长的市场需求，全球各大隔膜厂商都在加紧扩产。韩国锂电巨头SKI此前表示，公司计划到2023年将锂电池隔膜年产能从14亿平方米增加到21亿平方米，至2025年其产能将增加到40亿平方米/年。
国内厂商更是“纵马疾犇”。5月5日，恩捷股份发布公告称，为加快公司锂电池隔离膜业务海外市场开拓，将在美国俄亥俄州西德尼市投资建设锂电池隔离膜工厂。该厂拟规划建设10亿~12亿平方米的基膜生产线及配套涂覆设备，总投资预计为9.16亿美元(约合人民币61.5亿元)。
在此之前，恩捷股份还于3月29日发布公告，与玉溪市红塔区人民政府签订《投资协议》及补充协议。恩捷股份拟在玉溪市红塔区设立公司作为项目实施主体，投资建设年产能为16亿平方米的锂电池隔离膜生产项目，项目总投资额约45亿元。
除了恩捷股份外，4月27日，总投资32亿元的中科华联湿法锂电池隔膜项目落户四川遂宁;4月12日，总投资55亿元的江西衡川新能源材料科技有限公司锂离子电池湿法隔膜生产基地项目在宜春开工，规划湿法隔膜年产能约20亿平方米;4月6日，惠强新材锂电智能隔膜二期扩建项目开工，将新增产能4亿平方米/年。
另外，美联新材表示，公司控股子公司安徽美芯完成了两条双向拉伸薄膜生产线及配套涂覆产线的建设工作并试产成功，3#-4#产线进入设备安装阶段，其余生产线也在加快建设中。苏常柴A表示，公司参股的厚生新能源公司自2021年三四季度产能开始逐步爬坡，全年隔膜产量超过1亿平方米。
今年3月，中材科技公告，子公司中材锂膜拟在山东省枣庄市滕州经济开发区投资15.7亿元建设“年产5.6亿平方米锂电池专用湿法隔膜生产线项目”。长阳科技表示，隔膜项目是公司未来业务的重要发力点，公司力争2022年隔膜项目能实现小批量生产。该公司去年宣布，拟通过全资子公司合肥长阳新能源科技有限公司投资5.91亿元建设“年产5.6亿㎡锂离子电池隔膜项目”。
隔膜持续火热，就连石化巨头恒力石化也大举跨界进军。1月21日，恒力石化在互动平台表示，恒力石化下属子公司康辉新材料将引进日本芝浦机械株式会社和青岛中科华联新材料股份有限公司的湿法锂电池隔膜生产线12 条，年产能16 亿平方米，预计最早可于2023年投产。
值得注意的是，隔膜行业扩产建设周期较长，大致需要两至三年，同时由于隔膜(特别是湿法隔膜)设备工艺复杂、精度高，目前主要依赖日本、德国等进口设备供应商，所以隔膜产能释放将受到一定程度的制约，“供应短缺短期难解”。
In 2022, the shortage and price increase of some lithium battery materials may continue. As a material with ultra-high added value in lithium batteries, the gross profit margin can reach more than 70%. And the material with such huge profits has been in the upward channel of rising prices.
Since 2021, various diaphragm factories have successively increased prices to some small and medium-sized customers. We expect that the domestic diaphragm price increase will further spread in 2022, and prices will remain high until 2024. CITIC Construction Investment pointed out in its research report.
The rise in diaphragm prices stems from supply imbalances. According to industry data, the global lithium battery diaphragm production in 2021 is 10.55 billion square meters; it is estimated that the global lithium battery diaphragm demand will exceed 13.5 billion square meters in 2022, and the demand increment will exceed 3 billion square meters in 2021. However, the industry estimates that in 2022, the worlds new actual effective output will be less than 2 billion square meters, and the supply gap is huge.
In this context, many downstream manufacturers are vigorously stocking up. At the beginning of this year, Shanghai Enjie, a holding subsidiary of Enjie, signed an agreement with China Chuanghang. Shanghai Enjie promised to supply China Chuanghang with diaphragms amounting to no more than 2.5 billion yuan in 2022. According to an analysis by Zheshang Securities, the order corresponds to a purchase volume of about 890 million square meters of diaphragms, and the corresponding lithium battery output exceeds 50GWh.
In addition, a large overseas car company signed a diaphragm agreement with Shanghai Enjie. From 2022 to 2024, Enjie will guarantee a supply of no more than 1.65 billion square meters of diaphragms to a large overseas car company, and from 2025 onwards, the guarantee supply will not exceed 9 100 million square meters/year diaphragm. CATL purchased from Shanghai Enjie. In 2022, Shanghai Enjie will supply wet-process diaphragms to CATL. The total order value excluding tax is about 5.178 billion yuan, and the approximate purchase volume of diaphragms is about 1.84 billion square meters.
Industry analysis points out that the diaphragm link is the track with the best competitive landscape among the four major materials of lithium batteries. According to the forecast of CITIC Securities, the global demand for power batteries for new energy vehicles is expected to reach 1720GWh by 2027, and the CAGR from 2020 to 2027 will reach 44%; by 2027, the installed capacity of energy storage batteries will reach 212GWh, and the CAGR from 2019 to 2027 will reach 35%. %. Assuming that the demand for diaphragms corresponding to 1GWh lithium batteries is 15 million square meters, in 2027, there will be about 29 billion square meters of power lithium battery diaphragms in the world.
In terms of market supply, Chinese companies account for 70% of the global market share. According to the research report of Chuancai Securities, in the wet diaphragm market, Enjie shares in the domestic market share as high as 50.3%, Sinoma Technology and Xingyuan Materials ranked second and third. In the dry process diaphragm market, Shenzhen Zhongxing New Materials, Xingyuan Materials and Huiqiang New Materials ranked the top three.
In order to meet the growing market demand, the worlds major diaphragm manufacturers are stepping up production expansion. South Korean lithium battery giant SKI previously stated that the company plans to increase the annual production capacity of lithium battery separators from 1.4 billion square meters to 2.1 billion square meters by 2023, and its production capacity will increase to 4 billion square meters per year by 2025.
Domestic manufacturers are even more galloping. On May 5, Enjie announced that in order to accelerate the overseas market development of the companys lithium battery separator business, it will invest in the construction of a lithium battery separator factory in Sidney, Ohio, USA. The factory plans to build a base film production line of 1 billion to 1.2 billion square meters and supporting coating equipment. The total investment is expected to be 916 million US dollars (about 6.15 billion yuan).
Prior to this, Enjie Co., Ltd. also issued an announcement on March 29 to sign an Investment Agreement and a supplementary agreement with the Peoples Government of Hongta District, Yuxi City. Enjie plans to set up a company in Hongta District, Yuxi City as the main body of the project, and invest in the construction of a lithium battery separator production project with an annual production capacity of 1.6 billion square meters. The total investment of the project is about 4.5 billion yuan.
In addition to Enjie shares, on April 27, the Sino-Science Hualian wet-process lithium battery separator project with a total investment of 3.2 billion settled in Suining, Sichuan; on April 12, Jiangxi Hengchuan New Energy Materials Technology Co., Ltd. with a total investment of 5.5 billion The companys lithium-ion battery wet-process diaphragm production base project started in Yichun, and the planned annual production capacity of wet-process diaphragms is about 2 billion square meters; on April 6, the second phase expansion project of Huiqiang New Materials Lithium Battery Intelligent Diaphragm started, which will add 400 million yuan in production capacity. m?/year.
In addition, Meilian New Materials said that Anhui Meixin, a subsidiary of the company, has completed the construction of two biaxially oriented film production lines and supporting coating production lines and the trial production has been successful. The 3#-4# production lines have entered the equipment installation stage. The rest of the production lines are also under construction. Su Changchai A said that the production capacity of Housheng New Energy Company in which the company has a stake has gradually increased since the third and fourth quarters of 2021, and the annual output of diaphragms has exceeded 100 million square meters.
In March this year, Sinoma Technology announced that its subsidiary Sinoma Lithium Membrane plans to invest 1.57 billion yuan in the Tengzhou Economic Development Zone, Zaozhuang City, Shandong Province to build the annual output of 560 million square meters of lithium battery special wet diaphragm production line project. Changyang Technology said that the diaphragm project is an important force for the companys future business, and the company strives to achieve small-scale production of the diaphragm project in 2022. The company announced last year that it plans to invest 591 million yuan through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Hefei Changyang New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., to build a lithium-ion battery separator project with an annual output of 560 million square meters.
The diaphragm continues to be hot, and even the petrochemical giant Hengli Petrochemical has made a large-scale cross-border entry. On January 21, Hengli Petrochemical stated on the interactive platform that Kanghui New Materials, a subsidiary of Hengli Petrochemical, will introduce 12 wet-process lithium battery separator production lines from Japan Shibaura Machinery Co., Ltd. and Qingdao Zhongke Hualian New Materials Co., Ltd. With an annual production capacity of 1.6 billion square meters, it is expected to be put into operation as early as 2023.
It is worth noting that the expansion and construction period of the diaphragm industry is relatively long, which takes about two to three years. At the same time, due to the complex process and high precision of diaphragm (especially wet diaphragm) equipment, it currently mainly relies on imported equipment suppliers such as Japan and Germany. Therefore, the release of diaphragm production capacity will be restricted to a certain extent, and short-term supply shortage is difficult to solve.