风水轮流转。不是东风压倒西风，就是西风压倒东风。

　　曾经一度被三元电池碾压的磷酸铁锂电池，如今在中国动力电池市场的装机量已经大幅度超过三元。磷酸铁锂攻城略地，三元坚垒防守的局面已经持续三年。

　　动力电池应用分会数据显示，今年1-4月，我国动力电池累计装车量120.8GWh, 累计同比增长26.5%。其中三元电池累计装车量46.4GWh,占总装车量的38.4%，累计同比增长35.6%;磷酸铁锂电池累计装车量74.3GWh,占总装车量的61.5%，累计同比增长21.4%。今年5月，磷酸铁锂电池装机量市场份额更是超过70%，而三元电池占比则缩减到不足三成。

　　行业周知，在政策扶持下的三元电池，曾经是异常强悍的技术路线。宁德时代也正是凭借三元电池实现了对比亚迪的超越，跻身全球动力电池霸主。巅峰时期，三元电池在中国动力电池市场份额曾超过80%，而磷酸铁锂电池被挤到了角落。自从2018年被三元电池超越后，磷酸铁锂电池的市场份额就一路下滑;在低谷时期，其市场占有率曾低至可怜的12.8%。

　　不过，从2020年开始，磷酸铁锂电池又开始出现重新崛起的态势;随着下游需求的持续旺盛，磷酸铁锂电池产量也不断攀升，并在2021年5月实现了对三元电池的“逆袭”。随后磷酸铁锂电池装机量反超三元，强势地位一直保持至今。

　　从历史进程来看，三元和磷酸铁锂曾经轮流“坐庄”。

　　那么，未来三元和磷酸铁锂的市场表现将如何演化?业内人士认为，随着高镍三元电池技术的发展，特别是固态电池商业化的加速推进，三元将会发起对磷酸铁锂的反击。不过，从全球新能源市场平衡来讲，未来三元电池与磷酸铁锂电池将平分秋色，因此无论三元，还是磷酸铁锂，均展示良好增长空间。

01

三元电池后发优势

　　过去几年，磷酸铁锂之所以实现对三元的逆袭，很大程度上得益于成本优势。不过从长期来看，不少业内人士认为，通过能量密度的进一步提升，高镍三元电池有望从系统级成本上接近或低于磷酸铁锂电池。

　　根据华经产业研究数据，随着未来高镍工艺成熟，且CTP等技术开始商业化应用，高镍三元成本下降曲线将会更陡，预计2023-2024年高镍三元成本将低于5/6系三元，2027-2028年其成本将低于磷酸铁锂电池，最终理论成本比磷酸铁锂电池低10-15%。

　　事实上，三元电池向更高镍的发展进程不断提速。振华新材接受投资机构调研时表示，6系单晶三元相较于5系单晶三元有更高的能量密度，同时相较于常规高镍而言，在循环及安全性能表现上也更出色，其性价比得到车企认可和推广，因此目前中镍高电压6系市场份额提升较快。

　　“8系高镍三元未来也会往高电压方向发展，主要用在半固态/凝聚态电池上(匹配高续航里程要求的高端车型)。因此，根据目前情况，预计未来5系三元市场份额将逐步减少，6系和8系市场份额可能会进一步提升。”振华新材判断。

　　在容百科技看来，伴随原材料成本回归理性区间及原材料回收循环体系愈发成熟，长期来看三元竞争优势会愈发明显，三元正极仍是未来的主流正极材料，三元正极天然有着能量密度高且质量较低的优势。格林美指出，高镍三元材料是未来三元动力电池的发展方向，已成为未来高端乘用车首选动力能源。

02

固态电池拓展高镍空间

　　固态电池已经是众新能源产业链企业争相布局的热门赛道，将进一步促进高镍三元市场份额提升。东方证券指出，固态电池材料体系全面优化，产业链存在较多潜在机会。电解质为固态电池关键创新点;正负极材料向高性能方向迭代，将打开高镍三元、硅基负极乃至锂金属负极的应用空间。

　　当下，已经发布固态电池产品的企业，正极材料基本都是高镍三元体系，并实现超高能量密度。比如，蔚来汽车150kWh半固态电池包，采用超高镍正极材料，能量密度达360Wh/kg;智己汽车超快充固态电池，正极采用超高镍材料，能量密度达到368Wh/kg;正力新能的双重半固态超长续航大圆柱电池正力骐龙，采用超高镍正极材料，电芯能量密度达306Wh/kg。

　　目前不少材料企业高镍产品已经被导入固态电池客户企业。当升科技表示，公司固态锂电正极材料主要性能优势在于安全性更高、界面稳定性更好、表面锂离子扩散速率更快，超高镍材料已批量导入主要固态电池客户。

　　容百科技也表示，公司成功开发多款适用于半/全固态电池的高镍/超高镍三元正极材料，其中半固态电池正极材料配套的电池产品已应用于终端客户1000公里超长续航车型，全固态电池的三元正极材料获得行业头部客户充分认可。

　　“公司生产的9系高镍产品，目前在固态电池的头部公司完成了小试及中试测试，搭配固态及半固态电池体系发挥出了良好的电池性能，电池包能量密度≥400Wh/kg，预计在2025年年中会有突破性的应用进展。”天力锂能在互动平台表示。

　　从技术进程来看，三元材料高镍低钴化是大势所趋。而随着三元正极材料高镍化趋势继续深化,未来高镍系三元正极将占据市场主导地位。届时，三元电池或将凭借高镍获得能量密度和成本的双重优势，发起对磷酸铁锂的战略反攻。

Feng Shui takes turns. Either the east wind overwhelms the west wind, or the west wind overwhelms the east wind.

The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries, which were once overwhelmed by ternary batteries, has now significantly exceeded that of ternary batteries in the Chinese power battery market. Lithium iron phosphate has been attacking cities and occupying territories, and the situation of three strong defenses has been ongoing for three years.

When ternary batteries "counterattack" lithium iron phosphate batteries

According to data from the Power Battery Application Branch, from January to April this year, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China was 120.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.5%. The cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries is 46.4 GWh, accounting for 38.4% of the total installed capacity, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 35.6%; The cumulative installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 74.3 GWh, accounting for 61.5% of the total installed capacity, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 21.4%. In May this year, the market share of installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries exceeded 70%, while the proportion of ternary batteries decreased to less than 30%.

The industry is well aware that ternary batteries, supported by policies, were once an exceptionally strong technological route. Ningde Times has also surpassed BYD and become the global leader in power batteries by relying on ternary batteries. At its peak, ternary batteries had a market share of over 80% in China's power battery market, while lithium iron phosphate batteries were squeezed into the corner. Since being surpassed by ternary batteries in 2018, the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries has been declining; During the low period, its market share was as low as a pitiful 12.8%.

However, since 2020, there has been a resurgence of lithium iron phosphate batteries; With the sustained strong downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate batteries has also continued to rise, and in May 2021, it achieved a "comeback" on ternary batteries. Subsequently, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries exceeded that of ternary, and their dominant position has been maintained to this day.

From a historical perspective, ternary and lithium iron phosphate have taken turns to dominate.

So, how will the market performance of ternary and lithium iron phosphate evolve in the future? Industry insiders believe that with the development of high nickel ternary battery technology, especially the accelerated commercialization of solid-state batteries, ternary will launch a counterattack against lithium iron phosphate. However, from the perspective of global new energy market balance, ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries will be evenly matched in the future, so both ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries show good growth potential.

01

Advantages of Ternary Battery Latecomer

In the past few years, the reason why lithium iron phosphate has achieved a comeback against ternary is largely due to its cost advantage. However, in the long run, many industry insiders believe that through further improvement in energy density, high nickel ternary batteries are expected to approach or be lower in system level cost than lithium iron phosphate batteries.

According to research data from Huajing Industry, as the high nickel process matures in the future and technologies such as CTP begin to be commercialized, the cost reduction curve for high nickel ternary systems will become steeper. It is expected that the cost of high nickel ternary systems will be lower than that of 5/6 ternary systems from 2023 to 2024, and lower than that of lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2027 to 2028. Ultimately, the theoretical cost will be 10-15% lower than that of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

In fact, the development process of ternary batteries towards higher nickel is constantly accelerating. During a survey conducted by investment institutions, Zhenhua New Materials stated that the 6 series single crystal ternary has a higher energy density compared to the 5 series single crystal ternary. At the same time, compared to conventional high nickel, it performs better in terms of cycling and safety performance. Its cost-effectiveness has been recognized and promoted by automotive companies. Therefore, the market share of the medium nickel high voltage 6 series has increased rapidly.

"The 8-series high nickel ternary will also develop towards high voltage in the future, mainly used in semi-solid/condensed state batteries (high-end models that match high range requirements). Therefore, based on the current situation, it is expected that the market share of the 5-series ternary will gradually decrease in the future, and the market share of the 6-series and 8-series may further increase." Zhenhua New Materials predicts.

In the view of Rongbai Technology, as raw material costs return to a rational range and the raw material recycling cycle system becomes more mature, the three-way competitive advantage will become more obvious in the long run. The three-way positive electrode will still be the mainstream positive electrode material in the future, and it naturally has the advantage of high energy density and low quality. Greenway pointed out that high nickel ternary materials are the development direction of future ternary power batteries and have become the preferred power source for high-end passenger cars in the future.

02

Expanding High Nickel Space for Solid State Batteries

Solid state batteries have become a hot track for many new energy industry chain enterprises to compete for layout, which will further promote the increase of high nickel ternary market share. Dongfang Securities pointed out that the solid-state battery material system has been comprehensively optimized, and there are many potential opportunities in the industry chain. Electrolyte is a key innovation point for solid-state batteries; The iteration of positive and negative electrode materials towards high-performance direction will open up the application space of high nickel ternary, silicon-based negative electrodes, and even lithium metal negative electrodes.

Currently, enterprises that have released solid-state battery products mostly use high nickel ternary systems as cathode materials and achieve ultra-high energy density. For example, NIO's 150kWh semi-solid battery pack uses ultra-high nickel positive electrode material, with an energy density of 360Wh/kg; Zhiji Automobile's ultra fast charging solid-state battery uses ultra-high nickel material as the positive electrode, with an energy density of 368Wh/kg; The double semi-solid ultra long endurance cylindrical battery of Zhengli New Energy, Zhengli Qilong, uses ultra-high nickel cathode material, and the energy density of the battery cell reaches 306Wh/kg.

At present, many material companies have introduced high nickel products to solid-state battery customer enterprises. Dangsheng Technology stated that the main performance advantages of the company's solid-state lithium battery cathode materials are higher safety, better interface stability, and faster surface lithium ion diffusion rate. Ultra high nickel materials have been introduced in bulk to major solid-state battery customers.

Rongbai Technology also stated that the company has successfully developed multiple high nickel/ultra-high nickel ternary positive electrode materials suitable for semi/all solid state batteries. Among them, the battery products matched with the positive electrode materials of semi-solid state batteries have been applied to end customers with an ultra long range of 1000 kilometers. The ternary positive electrode materials of all solid state batteries have been fully recognized by leading customers in the industry.

"The 9 series high nickel products produced by the company have completed small-scale and pilot tests in leading solid-state battery companies, and have demonstrated good battery performance in combination with solid-state and semi-solid battery systems. The energy density of the battery pack is ≥ 400Wh/kg, and it is expected to have breakthrough application progress in mid-2025." Tianli Lithium Energy stated on the interactive platform.

From the perspective of technological progress, high nickel and low cobalt content in ternary materials is the trend. As the trend of high nickel content in ternary cathode materials continues to deepen, high nickel ternary cathode materials will dominate the market in the future. At that time, ternary batteries may launch a strategic counterattack against lithium iron phosphate by leveraging the dual advantages of high nickel in terms of energy density and cost.