美国新任总统特朗普正式上台后，一系列新政陆续出台。其中就包括叫停扶持电动汽车，拯救美国传统汽车工业的多项举措。此举的影响力将不只停留在美国，还可能波及全球汽车制造业和上游的动力电池产业链。

　　作为传统能源的坚定支持者，特朗普在竞选期间多次对拜登政府鼓励发展电动汽车的政策提出批评，并表态将在上任后取消这些政策。

　　特朗普在1月20日就任美国总统当天，就宣布废除拜登政府在2021年发布的一项行政令，该命令原要求美国到2030年销售的新车中，纯电动汽车在内的新能源汽车占比达到一半。

　　特朗普还签署了一项名为“释放美国能源”的行政令，指示联邦机构立即暂停用于推动汽车行业电动化的拨款，包括为电动汽车充电桩建设提供资金支持。

　　特朗普在行政令中称，此举旨在取消对电动汽车的强制规定，通过消除机动车准入的监管障碍，促进真正的消费者选择。

　　特朗普的这一系列举动，首当其冲的是在美国市场生产与销售电动汽车的汽车厂商。

　　过去数年，美国的电动汽车销量稳步提升，部分原因是拜登政府向消费者提供的7500美元购车税收抵免，它使得购买电动汽车的成本更接近燃油车。

　　这项激励措施是拜登政府2022年签署的《通胀削减法案》的一部分。在满足车辆组装地点必须在北美，以及动力电池所使用的关键矿物必须有一定比例在美国或其贸易盟友加工等要求后，相关电动汽车车型就有资格享受税收抵免。目前至少有15款车型有资格获得7500美元的全额税收抵免，包括特斯拉Model 3(配置|询价)、福特F-150等。

　　根据分析机构考克斯汽车公布的数据，在2022年和2023年，美国电动汽车的销量增速分别达到65%和49%，年销量在2023年突破了100万辆的关口。2024年，美国电动汽车年销售增速下降至7%，但全年电动汽车销量仍攀升至130万辆。

　　咨询机构睿咨得能源在一份报告中称，特朗普政府未来可能会停止对电动汽车消费者提供税收抵免，此举将彻底颠覆上一届美国政府加速交通领域电气化的政策。

　　政府的税收抵免以及其他对于电动汽车的支持政策，曾得到了大部分汽车制造商的拥护。代表主要汽车制造商的行业组织汽车创新联盟称，制造和销售电动汽车的美国汽车制造企业需要帮助，才能与中国汽车同行竞争，该组织一直致力于推动延续针对电动汽车的扶持政策。

　　尽管传统汽车制造商的电动汽车业务仍处于亏损状态，但它们预估，随着电动汽车销量的增长，这项业务将扭亏为盈，就如同特斯拉在扩大电动汽车产量后所实现的。

　　与此同时，特斯拉CEO马斯克是唯一公开支持取消税收抵免政策的汽车公司高管。

　　尽管特斯拉的多款车型也能享受7500美元的税收抵免，政府补助的终结会伤及该公司的业绩，但也将使竞争对手们的电动汽车性价比降低，从而扩大特斯拉的领先优势。特斯拉在美国的电动汽车市场占据着约一半的份额。

　　“至少在短期内，政策的转变可能会减缓美国电动汽车的普及速度。如果取消补贴，消费者可能会认为电动汽车的价格过于昂贵。”前述报告的撰写者睿咨得能源电池市场研究分析师陈姗称。

　　考克斯汽车的数据显示，去年美国电动汽车的渗透率为8.1%，远不及中国近41%的电动汽车渗透率。

　　完全废除7500美元的税收抵免政策并非易事，可能需要通过国会才能完成。但对于仍依赖于政策激励的美国电动汽车行业而言，在特朗普政府的政策导向下，出现市场增速放缓已是大概率事件。

　　这也会导致美国的动力电池需求的不确定性增加，从而对全球范围的电池制造商造成打击。

　　对于动力电池行业而言，特朗普叫停电动汽车扶持政策的另一潜在影响，是由于政府资金支持力度下降，企业新建动力电池生产项目的速度放缓，甚至陷入项目资金困境的状况。

　　《通胀削减法案》除了通过向消费者提供税收抵免，提升电动汽车市场需求外，还为在美国生产动力电池的企业提供补贴，借此改变该国落后的动力电池产业链。全球前十大动力电池生产商均来自于中日韩三国，其中中国企业占据六席，市场份额接近三分之二。

　　根据《通胀削减法案》的补贴政策，在美国生产电池电芯可以享受每千瓦时35美元的税收抵免，生产电池模组的税收抵免为每千瓦时45美元，电池模组由多个电芯组装而成。这刺激了以韩国和日本为主的电池企业加大在美国投资。

　　该补贴政策也成为电池企业的重要利润来源。去年三季度，韩国最大的电池制造商LG新能源获得了4460亿韩元（约合22.6亿元人民币）的《通胀削减法案》税收抵免，如果扣除这部分补贴，该公司单季度将出现亏损。

　　在特朗普1月20日正式上台，并重申其将废除拜登政府的绿色新政等主张后，包括LG新能源在内的韩国电池公司次日股价普遍下跌，其中LG新能源跌幅为4.3%。

　　与针对电动汽车消费者的税收抵免政策类似，特朗普政府也尚未明确将如何调整此项针对电池企业的补贴政策。

　　鑫椤资讯高级研究员张金惠告诉界面新闻记者，就动力电池领域而言，日韩电池企业受到美国新能源政策转向的影响最大，建厂补贴政策取消与电动汽车市场增速不及预期将对它们造成双重打击。与之相比，中国电池企业在美国的大规模投入尚未实质性启动。

　　国际能源署去年发布的报告显示，截至2023年，韩国和日本企业占到美国锂电池已落地产能的一半左右，而中国企业占比极小。美国同期的锂电池产能约为150吉瓦时，不到中国锂电池产能的十分之一。美国已连续四年成为中国锂电池出口的最大目的国。

　　考虑到地缘政治因素，目前在美国宣布电池工厂大规模投资计划的中国企业仅有远景动力和国轩高科（002074.SZ）两家。远景动力目前在美国已建成一座3吉瓦时的电池工厂，另有两座总计60吉瓦时的电池工厂处于在建阶段。国轩高科的首座美国电池工厂建设计划则在2023年末官宣。

　　宁德时代（300750.SZ）采取了轻资产模式，通过为福特汽车的电池工厂提供筹建和运营服务，并就电池专利技术进行许可的方式进入美国市场。这项技术授权合作于2023年对外披露，并不涉及直接投资。亿纬锂能（300014.SZ）也采取了类似模式，该公司在参与建设的美国合资电池工厂中持有10%的股权。

　　作为全球最大的动力电池生产商，宁德时代并未完全放弃在美国建立生产基地的计划。去年11月，宁德时代董事长曾毓群在接受采访时称，如果特朗普允许中国企业在当地投资电动汽车产业链，宁德时代将考虑在美国建厂。

　　陈姗向界面新闻分析称，考虑到美国市场的不确定性以及政策尚处于过渡期，宁德时代等中国电池企业可能会等待新政实质落地，再以符合当地政策和法律的形式展开合作。

　　截至发稿，上述中国电池企业均未就美国电动汽车扶持政策调整事宜回应界面新闻的采访。

After the new US President Trump officially took office, a series of new policies were introduced one after another. This includes multiple measures to halt support for electric vehicles and save the traditional American automotive industry. The impact of this move will not only be limited to the United States, but may also affect the global automotive manufacturing industry and the upstream power battery industry chain.

As a staunch supporter of traditional energy, Trump repeatedly criticized the Biden administration's policies encouraging the development of electric vehicles during the campaign and stated that he would cancel these policies after taking office.

On January 20th, the day Trump took office as the President of the United States, he announced the repeal of an executive order issued by the Biden administration in 2021, which originally required that the proportion of new energy vehicles, including pure electric vehicles, in the new cars sold in the United States by 2030 should reach half.

Trump also signed an executive order called "Unleashing American Energy," directing federal agencies to immediately suspend funding for promoting electrification in the automotive industry, including providing funding support for the construction of electric vehicle charging stations.

Trump stated in the executive order that this move aims to eliminate mandatory regulations for electric vehicles, promote genuine consumer choice by removing regulatory barriers to motor vehicle access.
How big is the shock wave of Trump's suspension of support policies for electric vehicles?

The series of actions taken by Trump are primarily targeted at car manufacturers that produce and sell electric vehicles in the US market.

In the past few years, the sales of electric vehicles in the United States have steadily increased, partly due to the $7500 car purchase tax credit provided by the Biden administration to consumers, which makes the cost of purchasing electric vehicles closer to that of gasoline vehicles.

This incentive measure is part of the Inflation Reduction Act signed by the Biden administration in 2022. After meeting the requirements that the vehicle assembly site must be in North America and a certain proportion of key minerals used in power batteries must be processed in the United States or its trading allies, relevant electric vehicle models are eligible for tax credits. At least 15 models are currently eligible for a full tax credit of $7500, including Tesla Model 3 (configuration | inquiry), Ford F-150, and others.

According to data released by analysis firm Cox Motors, the sales growth rate of electric vehicles in the United States reached 65% and 49% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, with annual sales exceeding the 1 million vehicle mark in 2023. In 2024, the annual sales growth rate of electric vehicles in the United States decreased to 7%, but the annual sales of electric vehicles still climbed to 1.3 million units.

Consulting firm Ruizi Energy stated in a report that the Trump administration may stop providing tax credits to electric vehicle consumers in the future, which will completely overturn the previous US government's policy of accelerating electrification in the transportation sector.

The government's tax credits and other support policies for electric vehicles have been supported by most car manufacturers. The Automotive Innovation Alliance, an industry organization representing major car manufacturers, said that American car manufacturers who manufacture and sell electric vehicles need help to compete with their Chinese counterparts. The organization has been committed to promoting the continuation of support policies for electric vehicles.

Although traditional car manufacturers' electric vehicle business is still in a loss making state, they estimate that with the growth of electric vehicle sales, this business will turn losses into profits, just as Tesla achieved after expanding its electric vehicle production.

At the same time, Tesla CEO Musk is the only automotive company executive who publicly supports the cancellation of tax credits.

Although Tesla's multiple models can also enjoy a $7500 tax credit, the end of government subsidies will hurt the company's performance, but it will also reduce the cost-effectiveness of competitors' electric vehicles, thereby expanding Tesla's leading advantage. Tesla holds approximately half of the electric vehicle market share in the United States.

At least in the short term, policy changes may slow down the popularity of electric vehicles in the United States. If subsidies are removed, consumers may consider electric vehicle prices too expensive, "said Chen Shan, an energy battery market research analyst at Ruizide, the author of the aforementioned report.

According to data from Cox Motors, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in the United States was 8.1% last year, far lower than China's nearly 41% penetration rate of electric vehicles.

Completely abolishing the $7500 tax credit policy is not an easy task and may require approval from Congress. But for the US electric vehicle industry, which still relies on policy incentives, a slowdown in market growth is a high probability event under the policy guidance of the Trump administration.

This will also lead to increased uncertainty in the demand for power batteries in the United States, causing a blow to battery manufacturers worldwide.

For the power battery industry, another potential impact of Trump's suspension of electric vehicle support policies is due to a decrease in government funding support, slowing down the pace of new power battery production projects by companies, and even leading to project funding difficulties.

The Inflation Reduction Act not only provides tax credits to consumers to boost demand in the electric vehicle market, but also provides subsidies to companies producing power batteries in the United States, thereby changing the country's backward power battery industry chain. The top ten power battery manufacturers in the world are all from China, Japan, and South Korea, with Chinese companies occupying six seats and a market share of nearly two-thirds.

According to the subsidy policy of the Inflation Reduction Act, producing battery cells in the United States can enjoy a tax credit of $35 per kilowatt hour, and producing battery modules can enjoy a tax credit of $45 per kilowatt hour. Battery modules are assembled from multiple battery cells. This has stimulated battery companies, mainly from South Korea and Japan, to increase their investment in the United States.

This subsidy policy has also become an important source of profit for battery companies. In the third quarter of last year, LG New Energy, the largest battery manufacturer in South Korea, received a tax credit of KRW 446 billion (approximately RMB 2.26 billion) under the Inflation Reduction Act. If this subsidy is deducted, the company will incur losses in a single quarter.

After Trump officially took office on January 20th and reiterated his commitment to repeal the Biden administration's Green New Deal and other proposals, the stock prices of South Korean battery companies, including LG New Energy, generally fell the next day, with LG New Energy falling by 4.3%.

Similar to the tax credit policy for electric vehicle consumers, the Trump administration has not yet clarified how to adjust this subsidy policy for battery companies.

Zhang Jinhui, senior researcher at Xinluo Information, told Interface News reporters that in the field of power batteries, Japanese and Korean battery companies have been most affected by the shift in US new energy policies. The cancellation of factory subsidies and the slower than expected growth rate of the electric vehicle market will have a dual impact on them. In contrast, the large-scale investment of Chinese battery companies in the United States has not yet been substantially initiated.

According to a report released by the International Energy Agency last year, as of 2023, South Korean and Japanese companies account for about half of the installed capacity of lithium batteries in the United States, while Chinese companies have a very small proportion. The lithium battery production capacity in the United States during the same period was about 150 gigawatt hours, which is less than one tenth of China's lithium battery production capacity. The United States has been the largest destination country for China's lithium battery exports for four consecutive years.

Considering geopolitical factors, the only Chinese companies currently announcing large-scale investment plans for battery factories in the United States are Far East Power and Guoxuan High Tech (002074. SZ). Yuanjing Power has currently built a 3 gigawatt hour battery factory in the United States, and two battery factories totaling 60 gigawatt hours are under construction. The construction plan for Guoxuan High Tech's first US battery factory will be officially announced at the end of 2023.

CATL (300750. SZ) has adopted a light asset model, entering the US market by providing construction and operation services for Ford's battery factory and licensing battery patent technology. This technology authorization cooperation was disclosed to the public in 2023 and does not involve direct investment. EVE Energy (300014. SZ) has also adopted a similar model, holding a 10% stake in the joint venture battery factory in the United States that it is participating in.

As the world's largest power battery manufacturer, CATL has not completely abandoned its plan to establish a production base in the United States. In November last year, CATL Chairman Zeng Yuqun stated in an interview that if Trump allowed Chinese companies to invest in the electric vehicle industry chain locally, CATL would consider building factories in the United States.

Chen Shan analyzed to Interface News that considering the uncertainty of the US market and the fact that policies are still in a transitional period, Chinese battery companies such as CATL may wait for the substantive implementation of the new policy before cooperating in a form that complies with local policies and laws.

As of press time, none of the aforementioned Chinese battery companies have responded to Interface News' interview regarding the adjustment of US electric vehicle support policies.