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有“锂”还是抢“锂”

2021-12-21

      2021年,“有锂走遍天下”一度被投资者奉为“致富圣经”。随着新能源汽车销量的全面爆发,作为动力电池主要金属原材料的锂堪称A股今年的绝对热点之一。

  作为有限资源,矿业巨头恃“锂”而骄,从普通资源股摇身一变成为身价翻番的香饽饽,曾经举债豪赌导致财务危机被“骂”的公司如今也成为了此轮囤矿的“先驱”。

  而叠加疫情后出现的供应链危机,锂已不仅是上游企业的“心头好”,动力电池厂商也加入了这场抢锂大战,这些龙头开启全球囤矿模式,甚至不惜为锂打得“头破血流”,业内还传出了“得上游者得天下”的豪言壮语。

  随着各方抢矿,锂精矿价格水涨船高,锂盐价格也在今年暴涨2-3倍,这种涨势在下半年持续加剧,动力电池厂商不得不宣布涨价以平衡成本的上升。

  这一幕幕都让今年的锂电行业显得前所未有的热闹。俊风公司高度关注,是因为“锂”不让人,必须未雨绸缪,抢占战略制高点。

  1

  抢矿大战吸睛

  临近年末,“锂电茅”赣锋锂业和“宁王”宁德时代还为抢锂矿企业而上演了一场“年度巨献”。

  11月中旬,随着美洲锂业(Lithium Americas Corp)发布的一则公告,总部位于加拿大温哥华的千禧锂业(Millennial Lithium)的最终去向才得以确定,这场耗时长达5个月的巨头争夺锂矿战才终于落下帷幕。

  美洲锂业宣布,同意以4亿美元的价格收购千禧锂业,这已经是对千禧锂业的第三次报价,这一价格比此前宁德时代约2.99亿美元报价高出约34%,较更早之前的赣锋锂业报价高出近43%。

  更有意思的是,美洲锂业虽然和千禧锂业一样是一家加拿大资源公司,但却与赣锋锂业有着千丝万缕的联系。

  这起争夺战最早可以从赣锋锂业在今年7月首先看中千禧锂业说起,随即其提出以每股2.85美元,交易金额不超过约2.8亿美元的对价向千禧锂业发出收购要约。

  但今年9月底,宁德时代从赣锋锂业处“夺食”抢下千禧锂业,将报价从赣锋锂业的约2.8亿美元增加到约2.99亿美元,同时宁德时代还应向赣锋锂业支付1000万美元违约金。

  就在业内认为此事发展到此结束时,11月17日,美洲锂业又进一步将报价加码到4亿美元,并同意向宁德时代支付2000万美元的违约金,最终拿下千禧锂业。

  事实上,美洲锂业加价背后是,公司仍处于亏损阶段,财务状况并不“富有”,甚至可谓“捉襟见肘”。

  而且深究发现,美洲锂业背后依然有赣锋锂业的身影。据赣锋锂业半年报,公司间接持有美洲锂业12.51%的股权,且其还派驻了一名董事到美洲锂业,对后者的经营具有重大影响。

  赣锋锂业和美洲锂业在项目上也有合作,双方共同拥有阿根廷的Cauchari-Olaroz锂盐湖项目。除此之外,双方财务拆借现象也非常多,通常都是赣锋锂业“借钱”给美洲锂业。

  故有分析指出,这场两大巨头海外锂矿争夺战依旧是以赣锋锂业的获胜而告终。

  为何锂电行业两大巨头不惜为千禧锂业大打出手?这主要是因为千禧锂业“家里有矿”。

  据公开资料显示,千禧锂业主要从事收购、勘探及开发锂矿业权,公司旗下在阿根廷拥有两个有待开发或勘探的盐湖项目,分别为Pastos Grandes锂盐湖项目和Cauchari East锂盐湖项目,前者拥有约412万吨的碳酸锂当量(LCE),后者目前还处于勘探初期。

  而这起抢矿案只是今年国内各大企业海外囤矿的缩影。

  今年10月上旬,紫金矿业也斥资近50亿元从宁德时代处夺下加拿大新锂公司。

  不少锂电产业上下游如天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、宁德时代、西藏珠峰等都较早布局了海外锂矿,今年又有更多企业蜂拥而至,且出手愈加阔绰,多次出现“虎口夺食”的情况。

     东风俊风很多车型选用宁德时代电池,东风与宁德时代成立有“东风时代”电池公司,为此,俊风公司新能源汽车理所当然“被”抢。

  除了锂电行业外,不少跨界企业也看上了“锂”这块肥肉,在今年纷纷跟进。高工锂电数据显示,今年下半年以来就有超20家企业跨界布局锂电,其中上市公司包括金圆股份、鞍重股份等。

  2

  需求暴涨下的争抢

  “需求增长太快,供给肯定要跟上。”针对国内企业海外抢矿现象的原因,全国乘用车市场信息联席会(乘联会)秘书长崔东树向《国际金融报》记者表示。

  随着新能源汽车销量的暴涨,整个锂电产业链的需求同步水涨船高,而锂精矿是动力电池上游原材料。

  根据乘联会最新数据,今年以来,与传统燃油车的不景气相区别的是,新能源汽车销量大涨。今年11月,新能源乘用车批发销量达到42.9万辆,环比增长17.9%,同比增长131.7%;前11个月新能源乘用车批发280.7万辆,同比增长190.2%。

  11月新能源车厂商批发渗透率19.9%,1-11月渗透率15%,较2020年5.8%的渗透率也有了提升明显。

  在新能源汽车销量持续走高的背景下,临近年底,诸多整车厂商却因缺电池交不出车被消费者投诉,上演了一出出维权闹剧。

  就在日前,针对小鹏P7“临时加价”风波和无法按时交车,小鹏汽车向媒体解释称,是因为整个行业面临着磷酸铁锂电池供给极度紧张的困难。

  早在今年7月,就有消息称,小鹏汽车创始人何小鹏为了顺利拿到宁德时代的电池,不惜亲赴宁德时代工厂一线蹲守一周。虽然事后何小鹏对此进行了辟谣,但“电池荒”的情况可见一斑。

  另一方面,宁德时代的董事长曾毓群也曾在召开的股东大会上坦言,称客户最近的频繁催货,已经让他“快受不了了”。

  随着动力电池供给的持续紧张,其中游材料碳酸锂价格也在今年(尤其下半年)出现了暴涨。

  今年三季度,以电池级碳酸锂为首的锂盐价格迅速攀升,在突破20万元/吨后依旧不减其涨势。公开数据显示,截至12月13日,国产电池级碳酸锂现货均价22.3万元/吨,较年初涨幅高达320.75%。

  此前国泰君安还预测,预计到2022年一季度,碳酸锂价格可涨至25万元/吨。

  央视财经曾报道称,碳酸锂价格暴涨,核心是上游锂矿资源紧缺涨价。

  再加上今年全球多方企业争抢,锂矿价格节节攀升。据SMM(上海有色网)显示,截至12月13日,锂辉石精矿现货价格2000美元/吨,较年初涨1582.5元/吨,涨幅达379.04%。

  因上游原材料的暴涨,今年10月,多家头部动力电池厂商如比亚迪、国轩高科、鹏辉能源等不得不宣布涨价来抵消成本的上升。

  其中,比亚迪在一封《电池价格上调联络函》上强调,比亚迪决定上调CO8M等电池产品单价,产品含税价格在现行的Wh单价基础上,统一上涨幅度不低于20%。另外,从2021年11月1日起,所有新订单将统一签署新的合同,并执行新价格,所有未执行完成的旧合同订单将关闭取消。

  此次价格上调主要是由于原材料价格的上涨。上述文件称,由于市场变化、叠加限电限产影响,与2020年12月相比,2021年锂电池原材料不断上涨,正极材料LiCoO2价格涨幅超200%,电解液价格涨幅超150%,负极材料等供应持续紧张,导致综合成本大幅提高。

  另外,国轩高科和鹏辉能源的动力电池涨价理由也大同小异,鹏辉能源更是称在原材料涨势持续下,其成本压力“已远远超出承受极限”。

  显然,上游原材料已经成为整个新能源汽车发展的制约环节之一,于是慢慢地锂电行业形成了“谁掌握了稳定的原材料供给,谁就掌握了市场话语权”的统一意识,所以不管是矿产企业抑或是电池企业都不惜争破头皮抢矿。

  3

  严重依赖进口

  相比于在国内,为何中国企业海外囤、抢锂矿成为了今年现象级事件?

  这一方面与我国国内锂资源的总量和类别有关。我国锂资源虽然在全球排名靠前,但总量占比并不大,且其中超八成是以盐湖的形式存在,需要经过复杂工艺才可以提炼。

  根据美国地质调查局USGS数据,截至2020年末,全球锂资源量约8600万吨,其中南美“锂三角”地区(智利、阿根廷和玻利维亚交界处的高海拔湖泊和盐沼)的锂资源量之和就占全球锂资源总量的近60%,其次是美国、澳大利亚和中国,其中澳大利亚锂资源量为630万吨且大部分为硬岩型锂矿,是世界上最大的硬岩型锂矿出口国。

  而我国锂资源储量仅占全球锂资源储量的6%,与之相对的是,我国新能源汽车产销量均领跑全球。乘联会日前发布的数据显示,今年前10个月中国新能源汽车占全球份额的51%,其中10月份占比高达61%。

  巨大的缺口使我国在锂资源方面严重依赖进口,占比约八成。

  因此不少下游电池企业会选择在海外收购锂矿,在保证供应链安全的同时,也能较好地控制原料成本,在业内获得更多的竞争力。

  公开数据显示,全球锂资源主要掌握在几家巨头手里,行业集中度非常高,产能主要由美国雅宝(ALB)、美国富美实、澳大利亚泰利森 Talison(股权天齐锂业51%,雅宝49%)和智利矿业化工SQM(天齐锂业25%)四家垄断,约占据了全球90%的产能。

  “咱们多抢矿,也不是坏事。”崔东树向记者表示。这是源于就目前技术而言,锂是新能源行业的“硬通货”,在“能源革命”中地位可谓是举足轻重。正如企业一样,我国在掌握了上游资源后,也能在新能源产业供应链中掌握重要的话语权。

  对于海外买锂矿的原因,紫金矿业相关负责人曾对媒体表示,锂是新能源战略性矿种,是公司董事会确定的需拓展的战略性资源。

  据记者统计,目前我国企业在全球的锂矿布局分别有澳大利亚、阿根廷、加拿大、刚果、爱尔兰等。

  多番布局下,华创证券研报显示,今年我国企业锂辉石/锂云母产量预计占全球总产量的20%,该比例会在2022年、2023年分别升至26.6%、36.5%。到2025年时,上述占比会降至8%,但这主要是源于澳大利亚泰利森的锂辉石增量,而泰利森是由我国的天齐锂业控股。

  4

  短期内

  仍存供应缺口

  这种狂热分食全球锂矿的情况具有可持续性吗?

  在崔东树看来,这是一种短期资源错配导致的,并不具有长期性。

  但大多数券商研报指出,在未来几年内,锂矿资源的缺口依旧会存在,锂精矿价格也会继续走高。

  中信证券研究报告显示,受到需求影响,本轮锂价格或迎来价格大周期。2019年下半年,由于锂价持续下跌,导致多家澳洲锂精矿生产企业出现财务危机,破产停产。预计2021年至2022年新增的锂精矿产能极为有限,2023年出现拐点。锂精矿供应紧张的矛盾预计延续至2022年。

  而SMM的预计显得更为悲观,其认为锂到2025年市场仍将存在供应缺口,其指出,虽然2020年到2025年,全球锂资源释放速度明显加快,但是其释放速度受矿山项目规划、地缘因素、政治风险等限制,扩产速度低于需求增长速度。

  华创证券研报分析,预计2021年锂盐冶炼35万吨,锂矿供给27.9万吨,缺口7万吨;2022年锂盐冶炼52.7万吨,锂矿供给36.1万吨,缺口16.6万吨;2025年锂盐冶炼83.5万吨,锂矿供给68.7万吨,缺口14.8万吨。

  基于缺口的长期存在,光大证券认为,不排除未来锂精矿价格的高点上探至2300美元/吨的可能性。这也就意味着锂精矿价格仍有15%的上升空间,当然这与今年超3倍的涨幅已不可同日而语。

  崔东树向记者指出,即便仍有上涨空间,企业仍要理性投资,谨防资源供给提升后的价格骤降,届时“可能会死一批”。

  除供需回归理性外,目前不少动力电池企业也在试图摆脱“锂”的制约。今年7月底,宁德时代发布第一代钠离子电池曾一度引爆市场,这其中一项重要原因,即钠相比锂而言,普遍存在于自然界,约为锂的1000倍。

  虽说如此,但短时间内钠离子电池对锂离子电池的取代效应依旧有限。伊维经济研究院研究部总经理吴辉向《国际金融报》记者表示,钠离子电池的主要优势在于其产业化之后成本较低,但业内普遍认为其能量密度太低,可能适合用于在低速车或者储能等领域,在新能源汽车上应用的可能性不太大。

  据介绍,宁德时代第一代钠离子电池电芯能量密度为160wh/kg,略低于磷酸铁锂电池,但宁德时代表示,下一代钠离子电池电芯能量密度将突破200wh/kg,预计2023年形成基本产业链。

In 2021, Lithium travels all over the world was once regarded by investors as the bible for getting rich. With the full-scale explosion of new energy vehicle sales, lithium, the main metal raw material for power batteries, can be regarded as one of the absolute hot spots of A-shares this year.

As a limited resource, mining giants pride themselves on lithium. They have transformed from ordinary resource stocks into doubling prices. The companies that once borrowed and gambled that led to financial crises have become pioneers in this round of hoarding mines. .

As for the supply chain crisis that has emerged after the epidemic, lithium is not only a good heart for upstream companies, but also power battery manufacturers have joined the battle for lithium. These leaders have started the global hoarding model, and even took the lead for lithium. Break the blood, the industry also spread the rhetoric of getting the upper reaches the world.

   With all parties rushing for mines, the price of lithium concentrate has risen, and the price of lithium salt has also soared by 2-3 times this year. This rise continues to intensify in the second half of the year, and power battery manufacturers have to announce price increases to balance the rise in costs.

   This scene has made this years lithium battery industry seem unprecedentedly lively. Junfeng Company pays great attention to it because lithium does not allow people to take precautions and seize the strategic commanding heights.

  1

   grab the mine and attract the eye

   Towards the end of the year, Lithium Electric Mao Ganfeng Lithium Industry and Ningwang Ningde Times also staged an annual grand offering for grabbing lithium mining enterprises.

In mid-November, with an announcement issued by Lithium Americas Corp, the final destination of Millennial Lithium, headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, was determined. This 5-month giant The battle for lithium mines finally came to an end.

Lithium Americas announced that it has agreed to acquire Millennium Lithium at a price of US$400 million. This is already the third quotation for Millennium Lithium. This price is about 34% higher than the previous US$299 million quotation of CATL. The price quoted by Ganfeng Lithium is nearly 43% higher than earlier.

   More interestingly, although American Lithium is a Canadian resource company like Millennium Lithium, it is inextricably linked to Ganfeng Lithium.

This battle can be started as early as Ganfeng Lithium first took a fancy to Millennium Lithium in July this year, and then it proposed to Qianxi Lithium at a consideration of US$2.85 per share and a transaction value of not more than approximately US$280 million. Takeover offer.

However, at the end of September this year, CATL took over the millennial lithium industry from Ganfeng Lithium Industry, and increased its quotation from approximately US$280 million by Ganfeng Lithium to approximately US$299 million. At the same time, the CATL should also offer Jiangxi Feng Li Industry paid US$10 million in liquidated damages.

Just when the industry believed that the development of the matter was over, on November 17th, American Lithium further increased its offer to 400 million U.S. dollars, and agreed to pay 20 million U.S. dollars in liquidated damages to CATL, and finally won the Millennium Lithium Industry .

   In fact, behind the American lithium industry’s price increase is that the company is still at a loss and its financial situation is not “rich”, or even “stretched”.

   and found out that there is still a figure of Ganfeng Lithium behind the American lithium industry. According to the semi-annual report of Ganfeng Lithium, the company indirectly holds 12.51% of the shares of Lithium Americas, and it also dispatched a director to Lithium Americas, which has a significant impact on the latters operations.

  Ganfeng Lithium and American Lithium also have cooperation on the project. Both parties jointly own the Cauchari-Olaroz lithium salt lake project in Argentina. In addition, there are also a lot of financial lending between the two parties, and Ganfeng Lithium is usually borrowing money to Lithium America.

  Therefore, some analysis pointed out that the battle between the two giants for overseas lithium mines still ended with the victory of Ganfeng Lithium.

  Why do the two giants in the lithium battery industry do not hesitate to fight for the millennium lithium industry? This is mainly because Millennium Lithium has mines at home.

According to public information, Millennium Lithium is mainly engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of lithium mining rights. The company has two salt lake projects to be developed or explored in Argentina, namely the Pastos Grandes lithium salt lake project and the Cauchari East lithium salt lake project. With approximately 4.12 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), the latter is still in the early stages of exploration.

   And this looting case is just a microcosm of the overseas stockpiling of major domestic companies this year.

   In early October this year, Zijin Mining also spent nearly 5 billion yuan to win the Canadian New Lithium Company from the Ningde era.

Many upstream and downstream lithium battery industries, such as Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Ningde Times, and Mount Everest in Tibet, have deployed overseas lithium mines earlier. This year, more companies flocked to them, and their shots became more generous. There is a situation of grabbing food from the tigers mouth.

     Many models of Dongfeng Junfeng use Ningde Times batteries. Dongfeng and Ningde Times have established a Dongfeng Times battery company. For this reason, Junfengs new energy vehicles are naturally snatched.

   In addition to the lithium battery industry, many cross-border companies have also taken a fancy to the lithium piece of fat, and have followed up this year. According to the data of high-tech lithium battery, since the second half of this year, there have been more than 20 companies that have cross-border deployment of lithium batteries, including listed companies including Jinyuan shares and Anzhong shares.

  2

   Scramble under the skyrocketing demand

   Demand is growing too fast, and supply must keep up. In response to the phenomenon of domestic companies rushing to mine overseas, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Council (CIC), told a reporter from the International Finance News.

   With the soaring sales of new energy vehicles, the demand for the entire lithium battery industry chain is rising simultaneously, and lithium concentrate is the upstream raw material for power batteries.

  According to the latest data from the Passenger Association, the difference from the downturn of traditional fuel vehicles this year is that the sales of new energy vehicles have risen sharply. In November this year, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 429,000, an increase of 17.9% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 131.7%; in the first 11 months, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles was 2.807 million, an increase of 190.2% year-on-year.

   In November, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers was 19.9%, and the penetration rate from January to November was 15%, which is also significantly higher than the 5.8% penetration rate in 2020.

   In the context of the continued increase in sales of new energy vehicles, as the end of the year is approaching, many automakers have been complained by consumers due to lack of batteries and cannot deliver their cars, and staged a rights defense farce.

   Just a few days ago, in response to the temporary price increase of Xiaopeng P7 and the inability to deliver cars on time, Xiaopeng Motors explained to the media that it was because the entire industry was facing extremely tight supply of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

   As early as July this year, there was news that Xiaopeng Motor’s founder, He Xiaopeng, would go to the Ningde Times factory to squat for a week in order to get the Ningde era batteries smoothly. Although He Xiaopeng refuted the rumors afterwards, the battery shortage situation is evident.

   On the other hand, the chairman of CATL, Zeng Yuqun, also confessed at the shareholders meeting that he was unbearable because of the frequent requests from customers recently.

   As the supply of power batteries continues to be tight, the price of lithium carbonate, a midstream material, has also skyrocketed this year (especially in the second half of the year).

   In the third quarter of this year, the price of lithium salt, led by battery-grade lithium carbonate, rose rapidly, and continued to rise even after breaking through 200,000 yuan/ton. Public data shows that as of December 13, the average spot price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate was 223,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 320.75% from the beginning of the year.

   Guotai Junan also predicted before that the price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise to 250,000 yuan/ton by the first quarter of 2022.

   CCTV Finance has reported that the price of lithium carbonate has skyrocketed, the core of which is the shortage of upstream lithium resources and price increases.

   Coupled with this years global competition from multiple companies, the price of lithium ore has been rising steadily. According to SMM (Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network), as of December 13, the spot price of spodumene concentrate was US$2,000/ton, an increase of 1582.5 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, an increase of 379.04%.

   Due to the surge in upstream raw materials, in October this year, many head power battery manufacturers such as BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Penghui Energy had to announce price increases to offset the increase in costs.

   Among them, BYD emphasized in a Battery Price Increase Contact Letter that BYD has decided to increase the unit price of CO8M and other battery products. The product price including tax is based on the current Wh unit price and the unified increase rate is not less than 20%. In addition, from November 1, 2021, all new orders will sign a new contract and implement the new price, and all unfulfilled old contract orders will be closed and cancelled.

   This price increase is mainly due to the increase in raw material prices. The above-mentioned documents stated that due to market changes and superimposed power and production restrictions, compared with December 2020, lithium battery raw materials will continue to rise in 2021. The price of cathode material LiCoO2 will increase by more than 200%, the price of electrolyte will increase by more than 150%, and the price of anode materials will increase by more than 150%. As the supply continues to be tight, the overall cost has increased significantly.

   In addition, Guoxuan High-Tech and Penghui Energy’s power battery price hikes are also similar to each other. Penghui Energy claims that as the rising trend of raw materials continues, its cost pressure has far exceeded the tolerance limit.

Obviously, upstream raw materials have become one of the restrictive links in the development of new energy vehicles, so the lithium battery industry has slowly formed a unified consciousness of who controls a stable supply of raw materials, who has the right to speak in the market, so whether it is minerals Companies or battery companies are not hesitating to scalp and grab mines.

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   heavily dependent on imports

   Compared to domestic, why did Chinese companies hoarding and grabbing lithium ore overseas have become a phenomenon this year?

   This aspect is related to the total amount and type of lithium resources in my country. Although my countrys lithium resources rank high in the world, the total proportion is not large, and more than 80% of them are in the form of salt lakes, which can be refined through complicated processes.

According to USGS data from the United States Geological Survey, as of the end of 2020, the global lithium resources are about 86 million tons, of which the sum of the lithium resources in the lithium triangle region of South America (the high-altitude lakes and salt marshes at the junction of Chile, Argentina and Bolivia) It accounts for nearly 60% of the total global lithium resources, followed by the United States, Australia, and China. Australia has 6.3 million tons of lithium resources and most of them are hard rock lithium mines. It is the world’s largest export of hard rock lithium mines. country.

   While my countrys lithium resource reserves only account for 6% of the global lithium resource reserves, in contrast, my countrys new energy vehicle production and sales are leading the world. According to data released by the Federation of Passengers, China’s new energy vehicles accounted for 51% of the world’s share in the first 10 months of this year, of which up to 61% in October.

  The huge gap makes my country heavily dependent on imports in terms of lithium resources, accounting for about 80% of the total.

   Therefore, many downstream battery companies will choose to purchase lithium mines overseas. While ensuring the safety of the supply chain, they can also better control the cost of raw materials and gain more competitiveness in the industry.

Public data shows that the global lithium resources are mainly in the hands of several giants, and the industry concentration is very high. The production capacity is mainly composed of American Albemarle (ALB), American Formica, Australia Talison (51% equity in Tianqi Lithium, Ya Bao 49%) and Chiles mining and chemical SQM (Tianqi Lithium 25%) have four monopolies, accounting for approximately 90% of the global production capacity.

   Lets grab more mines, its not a bad thing. Cui Dongshu told reporters. This is due to the fact that as far as current technology is concerned, lithium is the hard currency of the new energy industry, and its position in the energy revolution can be said to be very important. Just like enterprises, after my country has mastered the upstream resources, it can also hold an important voice in the new energy industry supply chain.

   Regarding the reasons for buying lithium ore overseas, the relevant person in charge of Zijin Mining once told the media that lithium is a new energy strategic mineral and a strategic resource that needs to be expanded as determined by the companys board of directors.

  According to reporters statistics, the current global lithium mines of Chinese companies are Australia, Argentina, Canada, Congo, Ireland, etc.

   Under the multiple layouts, the Huachuang Securities Research Report shows that the production of spodumene/lepidolite of Chinese enterprises this year is expected to account for 20% of the total global production, and the proportion will rise to 26.6% and 36.5% in 2022 and 2023 respectively. By 2025, the above-mentioned proportion will drop to 8%, but this is mainly due to the increase in spodumene from Australias Talison, which is controlled by my countrys Tianqi Lithium.

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   in the short term

   there is still a supply gap

   Is this kind of fanatical sharing of global lithium mines sustainable?

   In Cui Dongshus view, this is caused by a short-term resource mismatch, and it is not long-term.

   But most brokerage research reports pointed out that in the next few years, the gap in lithium resources will still exist, and the price of lithium concentrate will continue to rise.

   CITIC Securities research report shows that affected by demand, this round of lithium prices may usher in a major price cycle. In the second half of 2019, due to the continued decline in lithium prices, many Australian lithium concentrate production companies experienced financial crisis and went bankrupt and stopped production. It is estimated that the newly added lithium concentrate production capacity from 2021 to 2022 is extremely limited, and there will be an inflection point in 2023. The contradiction of tight supply of lithium concentrate is expected to continue until 2022.

SMMs forecast is even more pessimistic. It believes that there will still be a supply gap in the lithium market by 2025. It pointed out that although the global release of lithium resources will accelerate significantly from 2020 to 2025, its release rate is affected by mine project planning and geography. Factors, political risks and other restrictions, the speed of expansion is lower than the growth rate of demand.

According to the analysis of the research report of Huachuang Securities, it is estimated that in 2021, lithium salt smelting will be 350,000 tons, and the supply of lithium ore will be 279,000 tons, with a gap of 70,000 tons; in 2022, the supply of lithium salt will be 527,000 tons, and the supply of lithium ore will be 361,000 tons, with a gap of 166,000 tons; In 2025, 835,000 tons of lithium salt will be smelted, and the supply of lithium ore will be 687,000 tons, leaving a gap of 148,000 tons.

   Based on the long-term existence of the gap, Everbright Securities believes that the possibility that the price of lithium concentrate will reach US$2,300/ton in the future cannot be ruled out. This also means that the price of lithium concentrate still has 15% room to rise. Of course, this is no longer the same as the increase of over 3 times this year.

   Cui Dongshu pointed out to reporters that even if there is still room for upside, companies still need to invest rationally, and beware of the sudden drop in prices after the increase in resource supply, which may die a lot by then.

   In addition to the return of supply and demand to rationality, many power battery companies are also trying to get rid of the restriction of lithium. At the end of July this year, CATL released the first-generation sodium-ion battery that once detonated the market. One of the important reasons is that compared with lithium, sodium is prevalent in nature, about 1,000 times that of lithium.

   Despite this, the replacement effect of sodium-ion batteries on lithium-ion batteries is still limited in a short period of time. Wu Hui, general manager of the research department of Ivey Economic Research Institute, told the reporter of International Finance that the main advantage of sodium-ion battery is that its cost is lower after industrialization. However, the industry generally believes that its energy density is too low and may be suitable for use in Low-speed vehicles or energy storage fields are unlikely to be applied to new energy vehicles.


Even so, the replacement effect of sodium-ion batteries on lithium-ion batteries is still limited in a short period of time. Wu Hui, general manager of the research department of Ivey Economic Research Institute, told the reporter of International Finance News that the main advantage of sodium-ion batteries lies in their lower cost after industrialization, but the industry generally believes that their energy density is too low and may be suitable for use in Low-speed vehicles or energy storage fields are unlikely to be applied to new energy vehicles.

According to reports, the first-generation sodium-ion battery cell energy density of CATL is 160wh/kg, which is slightly lower than that of lithium iron phosphate batteries. However, CATL said that the energy density of the next-generation sodium-ion battery cell will exceed 200wh/kg, which is expected to be 2023. A basic industrial chain was formed in the year.