实际上，2022年年末，产能过剩在锂电产业链各环节已初见苗头，进入2023年后，在电动车市场需求增速放缓、储能市场需求尚未充分激活的背景下，锂电池主要材料、电芯价格均出现大幅下滑。

　　结合历史数据，电池级碳酸锂价格从2022年11月约60万元/吨的历史高点，至2023年年末跌至10万元/吨左右，降幅超83%，达到“脚踝斩”的程度，给行业带来巨大冲击。同时，上述多重因素带动电芯及主要原材料价格全线下行，电芯价格相较2022年年末，2023年年末电芯价格下跌五成左右。

　　2023年，磷酸铁锂电芯(动力型)和三元电芯(动力型)的价格分别从年初的0.825元/Wh和0.92元/Wh降至年末的0.43元/Wh和0.515元/Wh，降幅分别为47.88%和44.02%。

　　依此，用“风云突变”来形容锂电原材料和电芯的2023年价格走势一点不为过。在此背景下，我们分别从锂电上游原材料、正负极、隔膜、电解液、电芯等角度，回顾锂电产业链价格“跌宕”的2023年，并借此研判2024年产业发展格局。

01

碳酸锂一步到位“回归理性”

　　产业链各环节产品价格变化方面，经统计，2023年全年，上游锂盐价格降幅超80%，镍盐降幅超30%;正极材料价格下滑幅度在63%-73%;负极材料降价幅度在17%-32%;隔膜价格下降26%-37%;电解液价格降幅在58%-70%;电芯价格下调44%-55%。

　　其中，作为行业价格风向标，2023年电池级碳酸锂以及以碳酸锂为主要原材料的电池级氢氧化锂价格领跌。虽然电池级碳酸锂价格在去年5-6月曾出现过阶段性反弹，10月横盘一段时间，但是除此以外的时间几乎都处于价格下行通道。

　　业界认为，锂盐价格在短短一年的时间里降幅超八成，几乎一步到位走完了业界曾预测的2-3年“回归理性”的行情。

　　受此影响，从上游往下游看，以碳酸锂为主要原材料，磷酸铁锂正极材料/电解液/电芯的价格在相应环节均呈现更大的跌幅。

　　值得注意的是，对于产品价格全线下调，产业链头部企业在2023年纷纷采取了一些措施，以保障自身的市场竞争力。

02

锂业企业如何“活下来”?

　　将时间线拉长来看，2022年由于锂电原材料价格上涨引发锂电池价格居高不下，还曾引发车企“给电池企业打工”、电池企业“给上游原材料企业打工”等话题的争论。似乎余音未落，进入2023年后，产业链企业就不得不直面消减高成本库存、降价保市场份额等严峻挑战。

　　整车方面，中国市场上自2023年开年打响“价格战”，车企去库存背景下减缓了对动力电池的采购，成为引发全产业链价格共振的“导火索”。

　　与此同时，自2022年大规模扩产，随着2023年新增产能逐渐释放，产业链各环节普遍“供强需弱”，这也直接导致了2023年锂电主要材料及电芯价格大幅下降。

　　从下游往上游看，车端“价格战”下，除了由于新能源车产量增速放缓，动力电池需求增速亦减缓外，供应链降本也成为车企主要诉求之一，这都给电芯及上游材料企业去库存和降本提出更严苛的要求。

　　从新增招标量看，2023年锂电产业链全行业招标量较上一年下降五成左右。受此影响，中上游企业去高成本库存压力陡增，而随着产品定价权向需求端倾斜，供应端纷纷采取了一些应对措施：

　　一是降低产能利用率。锂电产业链各环节2023年产能利用率均不及2022年，大部分企业主动降低产能利用率以减少开支，动力电池平均产能利用率从2022年的超75%下降到2023年的不足65%。同时，无效、低效产能进入出清周期。

　　二是产品降价。企业普遍看好锂电产业的长期增量发展，纷纷采取阶段性降价保市场份额的策略，即使眼下“吃亏”，也要先“活下来”穿越周期。

　　三是构建技术护城河成为头部企业的工作重点。2023年动力电池领域，宁德时代凝聚态电池、神行超充电池，国轩高科启晨L600、亿纬锂能π电池、蜂巢能源龙鳞甲电池、欣旺达闪充电池2.0、瑞浦兰钧问顶电池、巨湾技研凤凰电池等多款产品发布、升级、量产，巩固企业市场竞争力;钠电池、半固态电池等新品类电池技术落地提速，促进动力电池市场各环节需求。

　　四是“卷出海”成为头部企业提高毛利的主要方式。2023年中国动力电池出口127.4 GWh，同比增长87.1%。对于电芯企业，海外市场毛利高于国内市场，电池出口量的提高，对企业提高毛利起到支撑作用;另一方面，宁德时代、孚能科技、国轩高科、亿纬锂能、远景动力、瑞浦兰钧等中国企业的海外基地已投产或在规划、建设中，或将进一步提高其电池装机规模。

　　那么，经历了2023年产品价格战后，2024年锂电产业链将会有怎样的表现呢?

03

降价或将继续

　　业内人士认为，2024年锂电材料价格下降仍将持续。其中，锂价准确的底部点位难以预测，不过可以从成本支撑、供需关系预期变化等角度来探讨碳酸锂潜在的价格支撑区间。

　　目前，成本超过10万元/吨的外采原料锂盐厂和云母提锂企业已经大规模停产，2024年锂价的波动幅度较2023年将明显减小，低位震荡走势的概率更大。机构预计，2024年电池级碳酸锂将徘徊在8万元/吨左右。

　　市场方面，2023年，中国动力和其他电池合计产量778.1GWh，同比增长42.5%;动力和其他电池合计销量729.7GWh，其中动力电池销量616.3GWh，同比增长32.4%。同期动力电池累计装机量387.7GWh，同比增长31.6%。显然，动力电池库存比例仍然较高。

　　另一方面，机构预计，2024年中国锂电池市场出货量将超1100GWh，同比增长27%。其中，动力电池出货量或超820GWh，同比增长20%;储能电池出货量将超200GWh，同比增长25%。锂电四大主材方面，正极材料、负极材料、隔膜、电解液出货量将分别超过300万吨、200万吨、220亿平米、130万吨，出货量增速都将超过20%。

　　由此，产业链各环节产能持续放量和库存消耗较慢之间的矛盾必然带来新一轮的淘汰潮，2024年的形势依然严峻。除去原材料成本的影响，企业在生产、管理等方面降本将进一步极致化。

　　行业预测，在2023年基础上，2024年锂业产品价格降价幅度在5%-15%。其中，正极、隔膜等降幅在8%-15%，负极、电解液等降幅在5%-12%。

　　与此同时，电芯企业“大单品”策略开始搅动市场变革。近期，消息称，宁德时代正在向车企推广一款173Ah的VDA规格磷酸铁锂电芯，标配2.2C倍率快充，2024年中旬将有几家车企切换到这款产品，电芯价格不超过0.4元/Wh。这也引发业界对动力电池将逐步进入“0.3元/Wh时代”的争论。

　　事实上，早在去年上半年蜂巢能源就提出其“大单品”策略，与其飞叠产线相匹配，力求在角逐激烈的动力电池赛道上，解决电芯标准化和降本问题。

　　从更长的周期来看，锂电行业依然存在巨大的市场空间，不过，产能出清下，三线及以下企业的生存将更加困难，而依靠技术和质量驱动的头部企业，将更容易在产业变革中站稳脚跟。

In the just passed year of 2023, China's lithium battery industry chain has experienced multiple tests such as weakened demand growth, destocking, and declining capacity utilization. This has led to increasingly fierce competition among enterprises in various links of the lithium salt, positive and negative electrodes, electrolytes, separators, battery cells, and other industry chains, and intensified industry competition.
In fact, by the end of 2022, overcapacity had begun to show signs in various links of the lithium battery industry chain. After entering 2023, with the slowdown in demand growth in the electric vehicle market and the insufficient activation of energy storage market demand, the prices of main materials and battery cells for lithium batteries have significantly declined.
Will the power LFP battery cells enter the "0.3 yuan/Wh era"?
Based on historical data, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate has dropped from a historical high of about 600000 yuan/ton in November 2022 to around 100000 yuan/ton by the end of 2023, with a decrease of over 83%, reaching the level of "ankle slash" and bringing huge impact to the industry. At the same time, the above multiple factors have driven the prices of battery cells and major raw materials down, with battery cell prices dropping by about 50% compared to the end of 2022 and 2023.
In 2023, the prices of lithium iron phosphate batteries (power type) and ternary batteries (power type) decreased from 0.825 yuan/Wh and 0.92 yuan/Wh at the beginning of the year to 0.43 yuan/Wh and 0.515 yuan/Wh at the end of the year, with a decrease of 47.88% and 44.02%, respectively.
Based on this, it is not an exaggeration to describe the price trend of lithium battery raw materials and battery cells in 2023 as a sudden change in circumstances. In this context, we review the price fluctuations of the lithium battery industry chain in 2023 from the perspectives of upstream raw materials, positive and negative electrodes, separators, electrolytes, battery cells, etc., and use this to analyze the development pattern of the industry in 2024.
01
Lithium carbonate returns to rationality in one step
In terms of changes in product prices at various links of the industrial chain, according to statistics, in 2023, the upstream lithium salt prices decreased by over 80% and the nickel salt prices decreased by over 30%; The price of positive electrode materials has decreased by 63% -73%; The price reduction of negative electrode materials ranges from 17% to 32%; Diaphragm prices have decreased by 26% -37%; The price of electrolyte has decreased by 58% -70%; The price of battery cells has been reduced by 44% -55%.
Among them, as an industry price indicator, the prices of battery grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium hydroxide, with lithium carbonate as the main raw material, led the decline in 2023. Although there was a temporary rebound in the price of battery grade lithium carbonate from May to June last year, with a period of sideways trading in October, almost all other times were in a downward price channel.
The industry believes that the price of lithium salts has dropped by over 80% in just one year, almost completing the industry's prediction of a 2-3 year return to rationality.
Affected by this, from upstream to downstream, with lithium carbonate as the main raw material, the prices of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials/electrolytes/cells have shown a greater decline in corresponding links.
It is worth noting that in 2023, leading companies in the industry chain have taken some measures to ensure their market competitiveness in response to the overall reduction of product prices.
02
How can lithium industry enterprises survive?
Looking at the timeline, in 2022, due to the rise in lithium battery raw material prices, lithium battery prices remained high, and there were also debates among car companies about "working for battery companies" and battery companies about "working for upstream raw material companies". It seems that the aftermath has not yet subsided. After entering 2023, industry chain enterprises have to face severe challenges such as reducing high cost inventory and lowering prices to maintain market share.
In terms of complete vehicles, since the beginning of 2023, a "price war" has been launched in the Chinese market. Against the backdrop of destocking by car companies, the procurement of power batteries has slowed down, becoming the "fuse" that triggers price resonance throughout the entire industry chain.
At the same time, since the large-scale expansion of production in 2022, with the gradual release of new production capacity in 2023, various links in the industrial chain have generally experienced strong supply and weak demand, which has directly led to a significant decrease in the prices of main materials and battery cells for lithium batteries in 2023.
From the downstream to the upstream, under the "price war" in the automotive industry, in addition to the slowdown in the growth rate of new energy vehicle production and the slowdown in the demand for power batteries, supply chain cost reduction has also become one of the main demands of automotive companies, which puts more stringent requirements on inventory reduction and cost reduction for battery cells and upstream material enterprises.
From the perspective of new bidding volume, the bidding volume of the entire lithium battery industry chain in 2023 has decreased by about 50% compared to the previous year. Affected by this, the pressure of high cost inventory reduction for upstream and midstream enterprises has sharply increased, and as product pricing rights tilt towards the demand side, the supply side has taken some countermeasures:
One is to reduce the utilization rate of production capacity. The production capacity utilization rate of each link in the lithium battery industry chain in 2023 was lower than that in 2022. Most enterprises actively reduced their production capacity utilization rate to reduce expenses. The average production capacity utilization rate of power batteries decreased from over 75% in 2022 to less than 65% in 2023. Meanwhile, ineffective and inefficient production capacity enters the clearance cycle.
The second is product price reduction. Enterprises are generally optimistic about the long-term incremental development of the lithium battery industry and have adopted a strategy of phased price reductions to maintain market share. Even if they are currently "losing money", they must first "survive" and cross the cycle.
Thirdly, building a technological moat has become a key focus of work for leading enterprises. In the field of power batteries in 2023, multiple products such as Ningde Times Condensed Battery, Shenxing Supercharged Battery, Guoxuan High tech Qichen L600, Yiwei Lithium π Battery, Honeycomb Energy Dragon Scale Armor Battery, Xinwangda Flash Charge Battery 2.0, Ruipu Lanjun Wending Battery, and Juwan Technology Research Phoenix Battery were launched, upgraded, and mass-produced, consolidating the company's market competitiveness; The implementation and acceleration of new battery technologies such as sodium batteries and semi-solid state batteries are promoting demand in various aspects of the power battery market.
Fourthly, "going global" has become the main way for top enterprises to increase their gross profit. In 2023, China's export of power batteries reached 127.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 87.1%. For battery cell companies, the gross profit of overseas markets is higher than that of domestic markets, and the increase in battery export volume plays a supporting role in increasing the gross profit of enterprises; On the other hand, overseas bases of Chinese companies such as Ningde Times, Funeng Technology, Guoxuan High tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Yuanjing Power, and Ruipu Lanjun have been put into operation or are under planning and construction, and may further increase their battery installation scale.
So, after experiencing the post-war of product prices in 2023, what will be the performance of the lithium battery industry chain in 2024?
03
Price reduction may continue
Industry insiders believe that the price decline of lithium battery materials will continue in 2024. Among them, the accurate bottom point of lithium price is difficult to predict, but the potential price support range of lithium carbonate can be explored from the perspectives of cost support, expected changes in supply and demand relationships, etc.
At present, lithium salt factories and mica lithium extraction enterprises with a cost exceeding 100000 yuan/ton have ceased production on a large scale. The fluctuation range of lithium prices in 2024 will be significantly reduced compared to 2023, and the probability of low volatility is greater. The institution predicts that battery grade lithium carbonate will hover around 80000 yuan/ton in 2024.
In terms of the market, in 2023, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 778.1GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.5%; The total sales of power and other batteries were 729.7GWh, of which the sales of power batteries were 616.3GWh, a year-on-year increase of 32.4%. The cumulative installed capacity of power batteries during the same period was 387.7GWh, a year-on-year increase of 31.6%. Obviously, the inventory ratio of power batteries is still relatively high.
On the other hand, institutions predict that the shipment volume of China's lithium battery market will exceed 1100GWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27%. Among them, the shipment volume of power batteries may exceed 820GWh, a year-on-year increase of 20%; The shipment volume of energy storage batteries will exceed 200GWh, a year-on-year increase of 25%. In terms of the four main materials of lithium batteries, the shipment volume of positive electrode materials, negative electrode materials, separators, and electrolytes will exceed 3 million tons, 2 million tons, 22 billion square meters, and 1.3 million tons respectively, with a growth rate of over 20% for each shipment.
As a result, the contradiction between the continuous increase in production capacity in various links of the industrial chain and slow inventory consumption will inevitably bring about a new round of elimination, and the situation in 2024 remains severe. Excluding the impact of raw material costs, enterprises will further maximize cost reduction in production, management, and other aspects.
Industry forecast shows that in 2024, the price reduction of lithium industry products will be between 5% and 15% based on 2023. Among them, the positive electrode and diaphragm have a decrease of 8% -15%, while the negative electrode and electrolyte have a decrease of 5% -12%.
At the same time, the "big single product" strategy of battery companies has begun to stir up market changes. Recently, it was reported that CATL is promoting a 173Ah VDA specification lithium iron phosphate battery cell to car companies, equipped with 2.2C fast charging as standard. Several car companies will switch to this product in mid 2024, and the battery cell price will not exceed 0.4 yuan/Wh. This has also sparked debate in the industry that power batteries will gradually enter the "0.3 yuan/Wh era".
In fact, as early as the first half of last year, Honeycomb Energy proposed its "big single product" strategy to match its flying stack production line, striving to solve the standardization and cost reduction problems of battery cells in the fiercely competitive power battery market.
From a longer-term perspective, there is still a huge market space in the lithium battery industry. However, with the clearance of production capacity, the survival of third tier and below enterprises will be more difficult, and leading enterprises driven by technology and quality will be more likely to stand firm in industrial transformation.