锂电材料过剩情况亦非常严重。浙商证券预测，2025年仅国内磷酸铁锂产能就将达575万吨，而2025年全球磷酸铁锂需求量仅约267万吨，产能过剩量达300多万吨。有机构预测，2025年全球电解液产能规划超需求多达340万吨。而三元正极、负极材料等材料也都有不同程度的过剩。

　　“由于终端新能源汽车和储能行业增速放缓，传导至锂电池材料端，2023年锂电池的正极材料、电解液、隔膜等产品增速同比降为2022年的三分之一，负极材料降为2022年的十分之一。”有业内人士分析称。

　　电池中国注意到，在过去的一年，行业在一派仍然火热投资的同时，不少锂电相关项目也因行业供给风向的转变，或叫停、或终止、或减投，或变更。

01

“悬崖勒马”的锂电项目

　　就连曾经最火热的碳酸锂项目也不得不“悬崖勒马”。2023年6月，协鑫能科公告称，拟对发行可转债方案进行调整，拟募集资金总额从不超过45亿元调整为26.49亿元，并删除了“年产3万吨电池级碳酸锂项目”。2022年8月，协鑫能科曾发布发行可转债不超45亿元布局3万吨电池级碳酸锂工厂。

　　在正极材料方面，2023年12月，寒锐钴业一口气终止了两个锂电项目。在公告中寒锐钴业宣布，终止“6万金属吨镍高压浸出项目”，以及“26000吨/年三元前驱体项目”，同时转而建设“年产2万吨镍金属量富氧连续吹炼高冰镍项目”。

　　2023年2月，寒锐钴业发布定增预案，计划募资不超过50亿元，投向6万金属吨镍高压浸出项目，投资总额为93.29亿元，项目主要产品为氢氧化镍钴混合物，适合于生产新能源动力电池用三元前驱体材料。2019年，寒锐钴业定增计划募资不超过19.01亿元，投向“10000吨/年金属量钴新材料及26000吨/年三元前驱体项目”。

　　此次终止6万金属吨镍高压浸出项目，寒锐钴业称原因是“镍领域新工艺更具优势”。对于三元前驱体项目终止原因，寒锐钴业表示，随着新能源市场快速发展，三元前驱体产能快速扩张，供需关系已呈结构性过剩态势。考虑到市场环境变化，经公司审慎论证，预计建设三元前驱体项目已不具有经济性。

　　在负极材料方面，经历整整一年之后，中元股份决定终止锂电定增项目。2023年8月，中元股份公告，拟终止向洛阳正浩定增募资不超7.72亿元。该定增原计划将用于年产20万吨高性能锂离子电池负极材料一体化建设项目。根据规划，该项目总投资为34.43亿元。

　　除此之外，尚太科技2023年3月宣布，公司里城道基地停产。该基地是其最早的生产基地，年产能过万吨。对于里城道基地停产的原因，尚太科技表示，整个负极材料行业供需已经反转，面临产能过剩的局面。在需求增长不达预期及供给大幅增加的情况下，降本增效成为公司应对激烈市场竞争的关键措施。

　　在电解液方面，2023年11月，新宙邦公告终止建设总投资约12亿元的珠海新宙邦电子化学品项目，以集中资源建设惠州宙邦四期电子化学品项目。同年8月，天赐材料发布公告称，公司将终止捷克天赐年产10万吨锂电池电解液项目(一期)并注销其子公司，同时计划在摩洛哥进行产能建设，为更好地服务及开拓欧洲市场做准备。

　　2023年6月，多氟多公告称，调整公司向特定对象发行A股股票募集资金规模，从不超过55亿元调整为不超过20亿元。原计划募资44亿元的“年产10万吨锂离子电池电解液关键材料项目”缩减至仅募资15亿元。

　　除了上述材料终止项目，2023年8月，震裕科技公告称，公司拟终止在四川宜宾投资建设的震裕新能源电池结构件二期项目，经与宜宾三江新区管委会、宜宾市翠屏区人民政府共同友好商议后决定，终止《震裕新能源电池结构件二期项目投资协议》。该协议于2022年1月签署，拟投资总金额为5亿元。

02

产能过剩“焰火”蔓延

　　作为锂电池重要原材料，2023年以来，碳酸锂市场价格不断走低。1月19日，上海钢联发布的数据显示，电池级碳酸锂价格较上次持平，均价报 9.8万元/吨;较一年前60万元/吨的历史高点，跌幅超过80%。

　　碳酸锂产能过剩已经不可避免。据中信建投期货研报数据，2023-2025年锂供给分别约112.25万吨、154.65万吨和183.1万吨碳酸锂;而锂需求分别为110.45万吨、136.12万吨和165.15万吨碳酸锂。不难看出，2023年行业锂供需基本平衡，2024年后将出现供给过剩。

　　在过去的一年，负极材料投资扩产热火朝天，几家头部企业年产能都在20万吨以上。同时，跨界玩家纷纷入局，龙佰集团、宝丰能源、宝武碳业、道氏技术、尚纬股份等纷纷投资建设负极材料项目。目前负极材料市场已经显现产能过剩的局面。

　　相对来讲，三元材料情况要好些。中金公司预计，到2025年三元材料的名义年产能将达到307万吨，高于其预测的需求数据，也将产能过剩。

　　由于近年来生产厂商大规模扩产，电解液也出现了产能过剩的风险。相关统计数据显示，目前国内企业规划2025年电解液产能将达600万吨。然而经机构测算，2025年全球电解液需求仅约260万吨，产能规划超需求一倍以上，多达340万吨。

　　“锂电领域经历需求、产能依次快速增长后，目前面临产能过剩挑战。预计2024年供需将进一步恶化，2025年有望缓和。” 华泰证券指出。当然，也有业内人士指出，当前产业链出现的产能过剩主要还是结构性的，真正高性能高质量的产品，市场供需仍处于紧平衡状态。

　　不过在此背景下，部分锂电产业链企业收紧投资步伐，适时“悬崖勒马”也是明智的选择。

Industrial investment rushed forward, downstream demand fell short of expectations, and the fireworks of overcapacity spread throughout the lithium battery industry chain. Changan Automobile Chairman Zhu Huarong once estimated that by 2025, the demand for power batteries in China is expected to be 1000GWh, and by that time, the industry's production capacity had already reached 4800GWh; That is to say, there is an overcapacity of up to 3800 GWh.
Severe overcapacity! Numerous lithium battery projects terminated/discontinued
The situation of excess lithium battery materials is also very serious. Zhejiang Securities predicts that the domestic production capacity of lithium iron phosphate alone will reach 5.75 million tons in 2025, while the global demand for lithium iron phosphate in 2025 is only about 2.67 million tons, with an overcapacity of over 3 million tons. Some institutions predict that the global electrolyte production capacity plan will exceed the demand by up to 3.4 million tons by 2025. And materials such as ternary positive electrode and negative electrode also have varying degrees of surplus.
"Due to the slowdown in the growth rate of terminal new energy vehicles and energy storage industries, which is transmitted to the material end of lithium batteries, the growth rate of positive electrode materials, electrolytes, separators and other products of lithium batteries in 2023 decreased by one-third year-on-year compared to 2022, and the growth rate of negative electrode materials decreased by one tenth of 2022," an industry insider analyzed.
Battery China has noticed that in the past year, while the industry has continued to invest heavily, many lithium battery related projects have also been suspended, terminated, reduced, or changed due to changes in the supply direction of the industry.
01
The lithium-ion project of "Cliff Reincarnation"
Even the once hottest lithium carbonate project had to be put on hold. In June 2023, GCL Energy Technology announced that it plans to adjust the plan for issuing convertible bonds, with a total planned fundraising amount of no more than RMB 4.5 billion to RMB 2.649 billion, and deleted the "30000 ton/year battery grade lithium carbonate project". In August 2022, GCL Energy Technology issued convertible bonds worth no more than 4.5 billion yuan to layout a 30000 ton battery grade lithium carbonate factory.
In terms of positive electrode materials, in December 2023, Hanrui Cobalt terminated two lithium battery projects in one go. In the announcement, Hanrui Cobalt Industry announced the termination of the "60000 metal ton nickel high-pressure leaching project" and the "26000 tons/year ternary precursor project", while shifting to the construction of the "20000 tons/year nickel metal rich oxygen continuous smelting high ice nickel project".
In February 2023, Hanrui Cobalt Industry released a private placement plan, planning to raise no more than 5 billion yuan to invest in a 60000 metal ton nickel high-pressure leaching project with a total investment of 9.329 billion yuan. The main product of the project is a mixture of nickel cobalt hydroxide, suitable for producing ternary precursor materials for new energy power batteries. In 2019, Hanrui Cobalt Industry's private placement plan raised no more than 1.901 billion yuan to invest in the "10000 tons/year metallic cobalt new materials and 26000 tons/year ternary precursor projects".
The termination of the 60000 metal ton nickel high-pressure leaching project is due to the fact that "new processes in the nickel field have more advantages," according to Hanrui Cobalt Industry. Regarding the reasons for the termination of the ternary precursor project, Hanrui Cobalt Industry stated that with the rapid development of the new energy market, the production capacity of ternary precursors is rapidly expanding, and the supply-demand relationship has shown a structural surplus trend. Considering changes in the market environment, after careful consideration by the company, it is expected that the construction of the ternary precursor project is no longer economically viable.
In terms of negative electrode materials, after a full year of experience, Zhongyuan Shares has decided to terminate the lithium battery private placement project. In August 2023, Zhongyuan Shares announced its intention to terminate its private placement of no more than RMB 772 million from Luoyang Zhenghao. The original plan for this private placement will be used for the integrated construction project of high-performance lithium-ion battery negative electrode materials with an annual production capacity of 200000 tons. According to the plan, the total investment of the project is 3.443 billion yuan.
In addition, Shangtai Technology announced in March 2023 that the company's Lichengdao base will cease production. This base is its earliest production base, with an annual production capacity of over 10000 tons. Regarding the reason for the shutdown of the Lichengdao base, Shangtai Technology stated that the supply and demand of the entire negative electrode material industry have reversed, facing a situation of overcapacity. In the situation where demand growth does not meet expectations and supply increases significantly, reducing costs and increasing efficiency have become key measures for the company to cope with fierce market competition.
In terms of electrolyte, in November 2023, Xinzhoubang announced the termination of the construction of the Zhuhai Xinzhoubang Electronic Chemical Project with a total investment of approximately 1.2 billion yuan, in order to concentrate resources on the construction of the Huizhou Zhoubang Phase IV Electronic Chemical Project. In August of the same year, Tianci Materials announced that the company would terminate the Czech Tianci annual production of 100000 tons of lithium battery electrolyte project (Phase I) and cancel its subsidiary. At the same time, it planned to build production capacity in Morocco to better serve and expand into the European market.
In June 2023, Duofuduo announced that it would adjust the size of the company's fundraising by issuing A-shares to specific targets, from no more than 5.5 billion yuan to no more than 2 billion yuan. The original plan to raise 4.4 billion yuan for the key materials project of producing 100000 tons of lithium-ion battery electrolyte annually has been reduced to only 1.5 billion yuan.
In addition to the termination of the above-mentioned materials, in August 2023, Zhenyu Technology announced that the company plans to terminate the Zhenyu New Energy Battery Structure Phase II Project invested and constructed in Yibin, Sichuan. After friendly discussions with the Sanjiang New Area Management Committee and the Cuiping District People's Government of Yibin City, it was decided to terminate the Zhenyu New Energy Battery Structure Phase II Project Investment Agreement. The agreement was signed in January 2022, with a total planned investment of 500 million yuan.
02
Overcapacity fireworks spreading
As an important raw material for lithium batteries, the market price of lithium carbonate has been continuously decreasing since 2023. On January 19th, data released by Shanghai Steel Union showed that the price of battery grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged from last time, with an average price of 98000 yuan/ton; Compared to the historical high of 600000 yuan/ton a year ago, the decline has exceeded 80%.
Excess production capacity of lithium carbonate is inevitable. According to the research report of CITIC Securities Futures, the lithium supply from 2023 to 2025 is approximately 1.1225 million tons, 1.5465 million tons, and 1.831 million tons of lithium carbonate, respectively; The demand for lithium is 1.1045 million tons, 1.3612 million tons, and 1.6515 million tons of lithium carbonate, respectively. It is not difficult to see that the industry's lithium supply and demand will be basically balanced in 2023, and there will be an oversupply after 2024.
In the past year, investment and expansion of negative electrode materials have been booming, with several leading enterprises having an annual production capacity of over 200000 tons. At the same time, cross-border players have entered the market, and Longbai Group, Baofeng Energy, Baowu Carbon Industry, Dow Technology, Shangwei Shares and others have invested in the construction of negative electrode material projects. At present, the negative electrode material market has shown a situation of overcapacity.
Relatively speaking, the situation of ternary materials is better. China International Capital Corporation (CICC) predicts that the nominal annual production capacity of ternary materials will reach 3.07 million tons by 2025, which is higher than its predicted demand data and will result in overcapacity.
Due to the large-scale expansion of production by manufacturers in recent years, there is also a risk of overcapacity in electrolytes. According to relevant statistical data, domestic enterprises plan to have an electrolyte production capacity of 6 million tons by 2025. However, according to institutional calculations, the global demand for electrolytes in 2025 is only about 2.6 million tons, and the planned production capacity exceeds the demand by more than double, reaching 3.4 million tons.
"After experiencing rapid growth in demand and production capacity, the lithium battery industry is currently facing the challenge of overcapacity. It is expected that supply and demand will further deteriorate in 2024, and it is expected to ease in 2025." Huatai Securities pointed out. Of course, some industry insiders have pointed out that the current overcapacity in the industrial chain is mainly structural, and for truly high-performance and high-quality products, the market supply and demand are still in a tight balance.
However, in this context, some companies in the lithium battery industry chain are tightening their investment pace, and timely "turning the tide" is also a wise choice.