锂电行业正加速洗牌。
进入6月,两则关于“磷酸铁锂”的消息引发行业广泛关注。一则是以龙蟠科技为代表的厂商,接连宣布签订头部企业的大额订单,一则是如中核钛白一般叫停或暂缓产能项目建设,行业呈现“冰火两重天”的态势。而这背后折射出的是,因供需错配而大面积亏损的磷酸铁锂行业,正在经历“大洗牌”。
6月2日,龙蟠科技旗下锂源(亚太)与亿纬锂能马来西亚公司签订协议,将供应后者价值超50亿元的磷酸铁锂材料,且这已是龙蟠科技今年获得的第4份大订单,此前其已和Blue Oval、宁德时代和楚能新能源签订了磷酸铁锂购销大额订单。
就在同一天,中核钛白发布公告称,其拟将终止包括年产50万吨磷酸铁锂在内的募投项目,并将剩余16.66亿元募集资金补充流动资金,用于公司日常生产经营及业务发展。
而这些并非孤例。电池中国注意到,除了龙蟠科技频获大单,今年以来,包括富临精工、万润新能、万华化学等接连宣布签单的消息。
6月5日,富临精工旗下子公司与宁德时代签署协议,宁德时代“提前”锁定其36万吨的高压密磷酸铁锂产能;同在6月,万华化学宣布其与欧洲磷酸铁锂电池制造商ElevenEs已签署合作备忘录,双方将在磷酸铁锂和其它高质量原材料方面展开合作;今年5月,万润新能与宁德时代签署价值超400亿元的供货协议,至2030年,万润新能将向宁德时代供应总量约132.31万吨磷酸铁锂产品,年均供应量达26.46万吨。
另一方面,包括中核钛白、芳源股份、金浦钛业等在内的多家企业,叫停了其各自的部分磷酸铁锂相关项目。
今年4月,芳源股份公告宣布,终止投资电池级碳酸锂生产及废旧磷酸铁锂电池综合利用项目,此前其计划分两期建设年报废30万吨磷酸铁锂电池回收、年产8万吨磷酸铁锂正极材料项目;金浦钛业也在4月宣布,退出年产20万吨的磷酸铁项目。
众所周知,磷酸铁锂是锂电池中被广泛使用的正极材料,主要应用于新能源动力电池和储能电池等领域。但由于磷酸铁锂产能快速释放,原材料价格下跌,市场行情下挫,行业陷入大面积亏损,行业“大洗牌”之下也在进行着格局重塑。
有从业者指出,当头部锂电池企业的订单集中化并被锁定后,中小磷酸铁锂供应商的竞争将更为激烈,落后产能过剩被关停出清,以高压密磷酸铁锂为代表的中高端产能逐渐成为主流,市场份额将进一步向头部和低成本企业集中。
也有专家分析认为,当前仍有多家企业继续加码磷酸铁锂产能,但增速有所放缓,磷酸铁锂市场处于“低端过剩、高端偏紧”的状态。此外,磷酸铁锂价格或将继续承压下行,产能预计到2027年才能达到供需平衡。
The lithium battery industry is accelerating its reshuffle.
Entering June, two news reports about "lithium iron phosphate" have attracted widespread attention in the industry. On the one hand, manufacturers represented by Longpan Technology have successively announced the signing of large orders from top enterprises, and on the other hand, they have suspended or postponed the construction of production capacity projects like CNNC Titanium Dioxide, presenting a situation of "ice and fire" in the industry. And what is reflected behind this is that the lithium iron phosphate industry, which has suffered widespread losses due to supply-demand mismatch, is undergoing a "major reshuffle".
On June 2nd, Lithium Source (Asia Pacific), a subsidiary of Longpan Technology, signed an agreement with EVE Energy Malaysia to supply the latter with lithium iron phosphate materials worth over 5 billion yuan. This is Longpan Technology's fourth major order this year, after signing large purchase and sales orders for lithium iron phosphate with Blue Oval, CATL, and Chu Energy New Energy.
On the same day, China Nuclear Titanium Dioxide announced that it plans to terminate its fundraising projects, including an annual production of 500000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, and will use the remaining 1.666 billion yuan raised to supplement working capital for the company's daily production, operation, and business development.
And these are not isolated cases. Battery China has noticed that in addition to Longpan Technology frequently receiving large orders, this year, companies such as Fulin Precision, Wanrun New Energy, and Wanhua Chemical have successively announced the signing of contracts.
On June 5th, a subsidiary of Fulin Precision Industry signed an agreement with CATL to lock in its 360000 ton high-pressure lithium iron phosphate production capacity in advance; In June, Wanhua Chemical announced that it had signed a memorandum of cooperation with ElevenEs, a European manufacturer of lithium iron phosphate batteries, to collaborate on lithium iron phosphate and other high-quality raw materials; In May of this year, Wanrun New Energy signed a supply agreement worth over 40 billion yuan with CATL. By 2030, Wanrun New Energy will supply approximately 1.3231 million tons of lithium iron phosphate products to CATL, with an average annual supply of 264600 tons.
On the other hand, several companies including CNNC Titanium Dioxide, Fangyuan Co., Ltd., and Jinpu Titanium Industry have suspended some of their respective lithium iron phosphate related projects.
In April of this year, Fangyuan Corporation announced the termination of its investment in the production of battery grade lithium carbonate and the comprehensive utilization of waste lithium iron phosphate batteries. Previously, it planned to construct a project in two phases, with an annual scrap of 300000 tons of lithium iron phosphate batteries for recycling and an annual output of 80000 tons of lithium iron phosphate positive electrode materials; Jinpu Titanium Industry also announced in April that it would withdraw from the iron phosphate project with an annual output of 200000 tons.
As is well known, lithium iron phosphate is a widely used positive electrode material in lithium batteries, mainly applied in fields such as new energy power batteries and energy storage batteries. However, due to the rapid release of lithium iron phosphate production capacity, the decline in raw material prices, and the downturn in market conditions, the industry has suffered widespread losses and is undergoing a restructuring under the "major reshuffle" of the industry.
Some practitioners have pointed out that when the orders of leading lithium battery companies are centralized and locked in, competition among small and medium-sized lithium iron phosphate suppliers will become more intense. Outdated overcapacity will be shut down and cleared, and high-end production capacity represented by high-voltage lithium iron phosphate will gradually become mainstream. Market share will further concentrate on leading and low-cost enterprises.
Some experts also believe that there are still multiple companies continuing to increase their production capacity of lithium iron phosphate, but the growth rate has slowed down, and the lithium iron phosphate market is in a state of "low-end surplus and high-end tightness". In addition, the price of lithium iron phosphate may continue to face downward pressure, and production capacity is expected to reach supply-demand balance only by 2027.