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十五五开局:电池刚需将全面爆发,对行业影响深远

2026-01-05

  2025年10月23日,二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议通过《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》(以下简称“十五五规划建议”)。

  十五五规划建议,为我国未来5年的发展明确了方向和目标,意义重大、举世瞩目、影响深远。

  这份文件深入分析了十五五时期,我国发展环境所面临的深刻复杂变化,对未来5年国民经济和社会发展作出顶层设计和战略擘画,是乘势而上、接续推进中国式现代化建设的又一次总动员、总部署。

十五五开局:电池刚需将全面爆发,对行业影响深远

  对于新能源行业,十五五规划建议以加快绿色转型为底色,以科技自立自强为引擎,为新能源、新材料、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群,绘就了清晰的发展蓝图。

  十五五规划建议中,对新型能源体系建设、碳达峰目标落地、科技创新深化等部署,正从市场空间、技术方向、政策保障等多个维度,为新能源产业链注入强劲动能,从而推动行业从规模扩张,向价值重构跨越。

01

十五五时期,电池刚需将全面爆发

  十五五规划建议,明确将新能源纳入到战略性新兴产业集群发展重点。其中提出“碳达峰目标如期实现,清洁低碳安全高效的新型能源体系初步建成”等核心目标,为产业链打开广阔的市场增长空间。

  在能源供给端,风、光、水、核等清洁能源多能并举,将带动新能源发电装机量持续攀升。

  在能源输送和消纳端,将“大力发展新型储能,加快智能电网和微电网建设;提高终端用能电气化水平,推动能源消费绿色化低碳化;加快健全适应新型能源体系的市场和价格机制。”

  如此形势,一方面,新能源体系的建设,将直接拉动对电力存储设备(储能)的强劲需求;另一方面,能源消费绿色化低碳化,则为动力电池市场注入持续增长的动能。

  同时,分应用市场看,除了新能源汽车、储能外,低空经济、具身智能等新场景的拓展,也将催生对高能量密度、高安全性、高倍率性电池的差异化需求。

02

十五五规划建议对新能源行业发展影响深远

  电池中国认为,十五五时期,我国新能源电池、储能等领域,将迎来格局重塑的发展新机遇,并将呈现两大核心趋势。

  其一,十五五时期,储能领域将迎来政策红利集中释放期。

  十五五规划建议强调,“大力发展新型储能”与智能电网协同建设,配合碳排放权交易市场扩容等政策,储能电池将从当前的市场辅助角色,跃升为能源系统核心组成部分之一,并在“碳达峰”目标落地过程中,起到至关重要的作用。

  其二,电池及材料、设备创新技术,将成为十五五时期重点突破方向之一。

  其中提出“关键核心技术攻关”战略,对于新能源电池产业链而言,直指电池产业链的材料瓶颈,或将推动磷酸铁锂改性、新型锂盐、高镍正极、固态电解质、硅基负极、复合集流体等技术加速迭代,也将倒逼锂矿等上游资源领域,优化提锂技术,以改善供需格局。

  同时,在“双碳”目标牵引下,电池原材料领域正形成“绿色化+循环化”发展导向,未来,提高再生材料使用率、建立完善的碳足迹管理体系,或将成为行业企业构筑核心竞争力的关键。

  新型电池技术研发方面,十五五规划建议中强调的,“人工智能+”行动与数字中国建设,有望推动电池研发与生产,向智能化、高效化转型。

  液态电池在能量密度、循环寿命、倍率性,以及生产环节降本增效等方面,目前已接近行业“天花板”水平,而在新材料、新工艺加持下,未来也有望实现进一步的突破。

  混合固液电池、固态电池,作为解决传统液态电池痛点的主要技术升级路线,在政策推动与技术突破双轮驱动下,其产业化进程有望加速。其中,混合固液电池将率先实现装车测试,而固态电池的长期攻关,也已被纳入国家重大科技任务布局。

  电池制造设备方面,也将迎来升级窗口期。干法电极、高精度压力处理等适配固态电池的新型设备,市场需求或持续增长。

  另外,工业互联网创新发展工程的实施,也将加速电池生产设备与数字技术的深度融合,从电极制造到模组组装的全流程智能化改造,将成为提升产品一致性与降低成本的关键。工业母机、高端仪器等设备领域的技术攻关突破,也有望为电池产业提供更先进的制造保障,从而进一步提高核心设备国产化率,以及电池生产效率。

03

电池产业链企业锚定突围方向

  对于十五五规划建议所带来的机遇和挑战,新能源电池行业企业,从技术、产业链、全球化三个维度精准发力,或将在产业变革中占据主动。

  首先,聚焦核心技术攻关,筑牢创新根基。

  那些积极对接国家重大科技任务,深度参与国家发展战略支持的技术创新项目的电池产业链企业,将有望在固态电解质、高镍正极、硅基负极等关键材料技术,以及干法工艺、连续化压力设备等核心装备瓶颈上,率先实现突破。

  在此过程中,相关企业需要加大基础研究投入,同时借助“人工智能+”赋能研发,以缩短技术迭代周期;建立“实验室-中试-量产”全链条创新机制。同时,电池企业可联合材料、设备厂商共建研发平台,以跨越新产品从实验室到工厂的“鸿沟”。

  其次,强化产业链协同韧性,优化产业布局,融入绿色生态。

  矿端、材料企业,可建立更加稳定的原材料供应体系,加强对镍、锂、钴等资源勘探开发与再生利用,搭建“资源开采-生产制造-回收再生”闭环体系。

  电池企业产业布局拓展已初现端倪。当前,宁德时代、弗迪电池、国轩高科、亿纬锂能、远景动力、瑞浦兰钧、欣旺达、中创新航等头部电池企业,已建成“零碳工厂”或已涉足“零碳新基建”等领域,以及碳管理平台建设。

  这也使电池企业,从电池供应商,不仅升级为能源整体解决方案服务商,更将成为中国碳达峰过程中的又一关键力量。从而,在支持电池碳足迹核查、绿电直供、源网荷储微电网等项目落地上,起到推动作用,并助力高能耗等行业企业降碳增效。

  再次,提升全球化合规能力与专利、标准的话语权。

  国内新能源企业对全球化发展已达成共识,十五五时期,产业链企业需要推进海外本地化生产,以应对海外贸易壁垒,形成“技术输出+本地制造”的海外落地形式;做好产品碳足迹管理,以满足海外不同市场合规化要求。还要注重相关专利、标准的前瞻布局与国际互认,构建符合自身优势的全球化产业规则体系。

  整体看,十五五时期是我国实现新型电池产业“制造大国”,向“技术强国”跨越的关键5年,国家顶层布局为产业发展指明了方向。相关企业惟有锚定核心方向,主动融入国家战略,以创新突破回应时代需求,才能在这场绿色转型浪潮中站稳脚跟,开拓新局,为我国“双碳”目标实现与全球能源革命贡献中国力量。


On October 23, 2025, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China passed the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" (hereinafter referred to as the "15th Five Year Plan Proposal").

The proposal for the 15th Five Year Plan has clarified the direction and goals for China's development in the next five years, which is of great significance, attracts worldwide attention, and has far-reaching impact.

This document thoroughly analyzes the profound and complex changes faced by China's development environment during the Tenth Five Year Plan period, and makes top-level design and strategic plans for the national economic and social development in the next five years. It is another general mobilization and deployment to take advantage of the momentum and continue to promote the construction of Chinese path to modernization.

Starting of the 15th Five Year Plan: The demand for batteries will fully explode, with far-reaching impacts on the industry

For the new energy industry, the 15th Five Year Plan proposes to accelerate green transformation as the foundation, use technological self-reliance as the engine, and draw a clear development blueprint for strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, and low altitude economy.

In the proposal for the 15th Five Year Plan, strong momentum is being injected into the new energy industry chain from multiple dimensions such as market space, technological direction, and policy guarantees, in order to promote the industry's transition from scale expansion to value reconstruction through the construction of a new energy system, the implementation of carbon peak targets, and the deepening of technological innovation.

01

During the 15th Five Year Plan period, the demand for batteries will fully explode

Suggestions for the 15th Five Year Plan: Clearly include new energy as a key focus for the development of strategic emerging industry clusters. Among them, core goals such as "achieving the carbon peak target as scheduled and establishing a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system" have been proposed, opening up vast market growth space for the industrial chain.

On the energy supply side, the simultaneous development of clean energy such as wind, solar, water, and nuclear will drive the continuous increase in installed capacity of new energy generation.

In terms of energy transmission and consumption, we will vigorously develop new types of energy storage, accelerate the construction of smart grids and microgrids; improve the electrification level of terminal energy consumption, promote green and low-carbon energy consumption; and accelerate the improvement of market and price mechanisms that adapt to the new energy system

In this situation, on the one hand, the construction of a new energy system will directly drive strong demand for power storage equipment (energy storage); On the other hand, the green and low-carbon energy consumption injects sustained growth momentum into the power battery market.

At the same time, looking at the application market, in addition to new energy vehicles and energy storage, the expansion of new scenarios such as low altitude economy and embodied intelligence will also stimulate differentiated demands for high energy density, high safety, and high rate batteries.

02

The 15th Five Year Plan proposal has a profound impact on the development of the new energy industry

Battery China believes that during the 15th Five Year Plan period, the fields of new energy batteries and energy storage in China will usher in new opportunities for pattern reshaping, and will present two core trends.

Firstly, during the 15th Five Year Plan period, the energy storage sector will usher in a period of concentrated release of policy dividends.

The proposal for the 15th Five Year Plan emphasizes the coordinated construction of "vigorously developing new energy storage" and smart grids, in conjunction with policies such as expanding the carbon emission trading market. Energy storage batteries will rise from their current market auxiliary role to one of the core components of the energy system, and play a crucial role in the implementation of the "carbon peak" goal.

Secondly, innovative technologies in batteries, materials, and equipment will become one of the key breakthrough directions during the 15th Five Year Plan period.

The strategy of "key core technology research and development" is proposed, which directly targets the material bottleneck of the new energy battery industry chain. It may accelerate the iteration of technologies such as lithium iron phosphate modification, new lithium salts, high nickel positive electrodes, solid electrolytes, silicon-based negative electrodes, and composite current collectors. It will also force upstream resource fields such as lithium mines to optimize lithium extraction technology and improve the supply and demand pattern.

At the same time, under the guidance of the "dual carbon" target, the field of battery raw materials is forming a "green+circular" development orientation. In the future, improving the utilization rate of recycled materials and establishing a sound carbon footprint management system may become the key to building core competitiveness for industry enterprises.

In terms of research and development of new battery technologies, the 15th Five Year Plan emphasizes the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative and the construction of a digital China, which is expected to promote the transformation of battery research and production towards intelligence and efficiency.

Liquid batteries are currently approaching the industry's "ceiling" level in terms of energy density, cycle life, rate performance, and cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the production process. With the support of new materials and processes, further breakthroughs are expected in the future.

Hybrid solid-liquid batteries and solid-state batteries, as the main technological upgrade routes to solve the pain points of traditional liquid batteries, are expected to accelerate their industrialization process under the dual drive of policy promotion and technological breakthroughs. Among them, hybrid solid-liquid batteries will be the first to achieve vehicle testing, and the long-term research and development of solid-state batteries has also been included in the national major scientific and technological task layout.

In terms of battery manufacturing equipment, there will also be an upgrade window period. The market demand for new equipment suitable for solid-state batteries, such as dry electrodes and high-precision pressure treatment, is expected to continue to grow.

In addition, the implementation of the industrial Internet innovation and development project will also accelerate the deep integration of battery production equipment and digital technology. The intelligent transformation of the whole process from electrode manufacturing to module assembly will become the key to improving product consistency and reducing costs. Technological breakthroughs in the fields of industrial mother machines, high-end instruments, and other equipment are also expected to provide more advanced manufacturing guarantees for the battery industry, thereby further improving the localization rate of core equipment and battery production efficiency.

03

Battery industry chain enterprises anchor their breakthrough direction

For the opportunities and challenges brought by the 15th Five Year Plan proposals, new energy battery industry enterprises may take the initiative in industrial transformation by making precise efforts from the three dimensions of technology, industrial chain, and globalization.

Firstly, focus on tackling core technologies and building a solid foundation for innovation.

Those battery industry chain enterprises that actively connect with major national scientific and technological tasks and deeply participate in technology innovation projects supported by national development strategies are expected to achieve breakthroughs in key material technologies such as solid-state electrolytes, high nickel cathodes, silicon-based cathodes, as well as core equipment bottlenecks such as dry processes and continuous pressure equipment.

In this process, relevant enterprises need to increase investment in basic research and leverage "artificial intelligence+" to empower research and development, in order to shorten the technology iteration cycle; Establish a full chain innovation mechanism of "laboratory pilot production". At the same time, battery companies can collaborate with material and equipment manufacturers to jointly build research and development platforms, in order to bridge the "gap" of new products from laboratories to factories.

Secondly, strengthen the collaborative resilience of the industrial chain, optimize industrial layout, and integrate into green ecology.

Mining and material enterprises can establish a more stable raw material supply system, strengthen the exploration, development, and recycling of resources such as nickel, lithium, and cobalt, and build a closed-loop system of "resource extraction production recycling".

The expansion of the industrial layout of battery companies has begun to emerge. Currently, leading battery companies such as CATL, Fudi Battery, Guoxuan High Tech, EVE Energy, Yuanjing Power, Ruipu Lanjun, Xinwangda, and Zhongchuang Chuanghang have built "zero carbon factories" or entered the field of "zero carbon new infrastructure", as well as the construction of carbon management platforms.

This also enables battery companies, from battery suppliers, to not only upgrade to energy overall solution service providers, but also become another key force in China's carbon peak process. Thus, it plays a driving role in supporting the implementation of projects such as battery carbon footprint verification, green power direct supply, and source grid load storage microgrids, and helps high energy consuming industry enterprises reduce carbon emissions and increase efficiency.

Once again, enhance global compliance capabilities and the discourse power of patents and standards.

Domestic new energy enterprises have reached a consensus on the development of globalization. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, industrial chain enterprises need to promote localized production overseas to cope with overseas trade barriers and form an overseas landing form of "technology output+local manufacturing"; Manage product carbon footprint effectively to meet the compliance requirements of different overseas markets. We also need to pay attention to the forward-looking layout and international mutual recognition of relevant patents and standards, and build a global industrial rule system that is in line with our own advantages.

Overall, the 15th Five Year Plan period is a crucial five-year period for China to achieve the goal of becoming a "manufacturing powerhouse" in the new battery industry and to leap towards becoming a "technological powerhouse". The national top-level layout has pointed out the direction for industrial development. Only by anchoring the core direction, actively integrating into national strategies, and responding to the needs of the times with innovative breakthroughs can relevant enterprises stand firm in this wave of green transformation, explore new opportunities, and contribute Chinese strength to the realization of China's "dual carbon" goals and the global energy revolution.